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jonst0kes's profile
jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)
jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)
jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)
@jonst0kes

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jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)

@jonst0kes

Ars Technica founder. Writer. Coder. Doomer. Generalist. Also http://opensourcedefense.org . OG OG. Heartbroke but still loc'd.

Austin, TX
diamondapp.com/u/jonstokes
Joined July 2008

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    1. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      I see a lot of anecdotal reports of hospitals underutilized & closure of the excess capacity that was spun up in anticipation of a surge that hasn't yet materialized due to social distancing having an impact. I think we're probably gonna re-open too soon based on that.

      11 replies 19 retweets 136 likes
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    2. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      I'm starting to think 2020-2021 will see waves of overwhelmed hospitals in different cities at different times, as lockdowns are relaxed and then reimplemented. The impact on the actual economy will be pretty brutal, & everything will just get... janky, for lack of a better word.

      1 reply 9 retweets 81 likes
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    3. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      There will be a kind of mass jankification of all the things. The mail will just sort of not run b/c the USPS will implement mass furloughs to stave off insolvency. You won't be able to book convenient flights b/c routes will be closed. There will odd shortages at supermarkets.

      4 replies 7 retweets 65 likes
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    4. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      We're going to end up in a place that's pretty familiar to many third worlders & travelers in such countries, where many things things we took for granted just sort of don't work, or come and go at odd and unpredictable times. Just a general, pervasive jankitude in public life.

      2 replies 19 retweets 79 likes
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    5. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      (I'm aware that this is how a lot of people from high-functioning Asian and EU countries already feel about the US -- a lot of parts of it are just more janky than what they're used to. Well, that'll get a lot worse.)

      1 reply 2 retweets 53 likes
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    6. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      It's not going to be doomsday for everyone. It'll be different degrees of doomsday for different populations & demographics in different places. So it might be doomsday for your neighbors or ppl in another town or state - sudden hunger & desperation --but not for you. Or reverse.

      3 replies 4 retweets 44 likes
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    7. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      A lot of countries already operate this way & have for a while. I traveled in San Salvador a bit in the early 2K's, for instance. Many ppl there live in what preppers would call a SHTF situation. Some people in the same city do not. Everybody just tries to deal.

      1 reply 4 retweets 34 likes
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    8. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      I now expect that through multiple cycles of hospital overwhelm + death and regional/national lockdowns, we'll travel a few notches down in that same terrible direction. How fast & how far I have no idea, tho. But it'll be a process that plays out over a year or two.

      1 reply 6 retweets 43 likes
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    9. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      And it will feel like an absolute eternity in Twitter years. We'll pass virtual decades on here in that time.

      3 replies 3 retweets 46 likes
      Show this thread
      jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

      Yep, like we're going to get a big push to reopen on May 1. God help us all.https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/trump-reopen-us-economy/2020/04/09/10d42b4a-7a7b-11ea-9bee-c5bf9d2e3288_story.html …

      8:30 PM - 9 Apr 2020
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      • GiantLeopard alex rubinsteyn Merry Marie & the Jolly Holidays🎄 Elissa Shevinsky ザコ🇭🇰 StarlightBerserker 🇭🇰ザコ Will Henderson Benjamin Seda CharityFeb Aaron
      5 replies 7 retweets 41 likes
        1. jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)‏ @jonst0kes 9 Apr 2020

          jonstokes(\.com|\.eth) Retweeted jonstokes(\.com|\.eth)

          This big gamble with our lives is based on the "all the models are dumb & wrong" crowd's very most favorite thing of all: a model. And the foundation of that model is that same crowd's second most favorite thing of all: the fake Chinese numbers.https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1248451918797520896 …

          jonstokes(\.com|\.eth) added,

          jonstokes(\.com|\.eth) @jonst0kes
          It comes from this model, apparently, which has the whole crisis ending abruptly on about June 1. Would love to hear how they get there, as opposed to the year-long wrestling with this predicted by Osterholm & others. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america …
          Show this thread
          6 replies 9 retweets 44 likes
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        1. Lorem Ipsum‏ @whiskeynachos 9 Apr 2020
          Replying to @jonst0kes

          Counterpoint: in our federal system the relevant police powers are in the hands of governors, not the president. And they'll be looking at their own numbers when making the decision to ease up, not following whatever he's saying.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. ( 🔺 💜 🔻) Best dog ever ( 🦇 🔊) ²‏ @SchalkDormehl 9 Apr 2020
          Replying to @jonst0kes

          It's called "livelihood" and "making a living" for a reason... It keeps people alive

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  🔫 Alwin  🦌  🌈‏ @TheButterZone 9 Apr 2020
          Replying to @SchalkDormehl @jonst0kes

          https://www.webmd.com/depression/news/20110414/suicides-go-up-when-economy-goes-down … Livelihoods don't matter, suicides don't matter, and with a ~40% vaccine effectiveness rate, no other concurrent/consecutive pandemic in my lifetime was made to matter as much as this one. #AllPandemicsMatter #NanobotExterminateALLViruses

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. NATrually‏ @NATrually 10 Apr 2020
          Replying to @jonst0kes

          Bill Gates said it will probably end in June. He sounded Very confident.pic.twitter.com/Y62Muol6wo

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Johnny‏ @JohnnyUtah27 10 Apr 2020

          Yup, right there with ya.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation

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