2/ First, let’s clarify the problem. Say we agree a full CU outside EU. Because we’re in CU, we apply all EU’s tariffs. But because we’re not in EU, we’re formally a third country and don’t join EU’s trade deals.
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3/ At the moment we don’t have a trade deal with NZ. EU is starting to negotiate one. NZ wants elimination of dairy tariffs, which are currently up to 40%. After NZ/EU deal, NZ will get zero tariffs on exports to EU - and therefore to UK. But on surface we won’t get same.
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4/ That’s clearly a problem. So what do we do? EU negotiates on behalf of EU, not third countries. Trade deals come under auspices of Common Commercial Policy (CCP), not customs union. So we need to join CCP - or have associated membership.
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5/ Would EU buy the idea? They may see it as cakeism. They may insist that we wouldn’t get to vote on final terms. We’d have less formal influence than EU members, and probably wouldn’t be able to veto an EU deal. But they may also want added clout of UK economy & 65m consumers.
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6/ Once again though, we’re completely trapped. Economically we need to be in customs union - and if we’re out of it we break terms of December’s joint agreement. We probably breach Good Friday Agreement.
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7/ The best option is to stay in the EU. If we leave the EU, we lose influence, and give away control. If we manage to win some back, that will come with strings. This is the reality of Brexit. If people don’t like it, they should have the right to stop it.
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Just like Henry VIII broke with the Catholic church and made another one replicating it. At least Henry had the support of his closest neighbours and his actions didn't really involve them.
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a) options right now, but we don’t know about the future b) if we can’t replicate any influence then we’ll just have to accept a one-sided customs union as the default option post-joint agreement. Great result for everyone.
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What would be the point of shadowing tariffs without joining CU? Still no power to negotiate tariff-based FTAs. Also, you’d still have CET barrier at Irish border. EU would need to collect its own tariff if UK was a fully independent third country, even if tariffs were identical
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Het laden lijkt wat langer te duren.
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