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Few thoughts about this @jmartNYT piece:
1. It’s true there’s been an overall, long-term decline in Democratic performance among rural voters. But it’s odd to make 2012 the reference point when Dems made their biggest gains between 2016 and 2018 among...rural voters.https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1066670371028561920 …
2. We know this because of another NYT story by @StanGreenberg: “Democrats cut the Republicans’ margin in rural areas by 13 points, according to the Edison exit poll and by seven points in one by Catalist.” Full piece:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-is-beginning-to-lose-his-grip.html …
3. Of course, many of the bigger rural gains came in the Midwest, not the South, and younger voters were largely responsible, but at the very least, it doesn’t support the causality implied in the piece: that it’s progressive policies or candidates that have caused the decline.
4. @NateSilver538 points that out here: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1066742114455703552?s=21 …
In 2018, there was no evidence that moderate or conservative Democrats did any better in red states/red counties than progressive Democrats.
5. And yet, there was evidence that progressive policies did quite well, even in red states: MO voters approved a minimum wage increase; UT, NE, ID approved Medicaid expansion; FL approved voting rights for the formerly incarcerated; MI approved legal weed and automatic reg, etc.
6. Clearly, polarization is real, as we can see from the growing divide between urban/suburban areas and rural/exurban areas. But evidence simply doesn’t support the implication that a) it’s caused by progressivism or b) it’s irreversible.
7. What 2018 did prove is that Democrats can win and/or make gains everywhere with a progressive, policy-focused message on issues like health care without giving an inch on issues of equal rights and social justice.
8. Anyway, people who are smarter and more experienced than me talk about all of this and more in http://thewildernesspodcast.com , so check it out. And JMart is a great reporter - I just take issue with some of the conclusions implied in this piece.
It's almost like the authors selectively cherry-picked the data to fit their predetermined narrative.
This is a total reverse Occam’s razor. Gillum lost bc Florida leans red when everyone turns out. Abrams lost bc of voter suppression. Beto lost because HE RAN IN TEXAS.
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