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jonathanweisman's profile
Jonathan Weisman
Jonathan Weisman
Jonathan Weisman
Verified account
@jonathanweisman

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Jonathan WeismanVerified account

@jonathanweisman

Congressional correspondent, The New York Times, author, (((Semitism))) - Being Jewish in the Age of Trump, and No. 4 Imperial Lane

Washington, DC
jonathanweisman.com
Joined February 2009

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    Jonathan Weisman‏Verified account @jonathanweisman 23 Oct 2018

    I feel like political journalism learned the wrong lesson in 2016. We’re bending over backwards to suggest that just maybe conventional wisdom is wrong and Republicans will hold Congress when I think the lesson of 2016 should be simpler: stop predicting either way.

    6:07 AM - 23 Oct 2018 from Montréal, Québec
    • 211 Retweets
    • 1,085 Likes
    • Cats Against the GOP! Patty Michael Coffman J-C 💛 Tina Ziemek Jeremy on film Jenny Madison Eliana Righi B🇺🇸
    47 replies 211 retweets 1,085 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Tom Bonier‏Verified account @tbonier 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jonathanweisman

        Amen. More discussion of the factors that could impact the outcome either way and how they are changing, less attempts to synthesize all of that into a prediction (esp when the prediction is more of a bet hedging).

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
      3. Valerius Ander (MM) - Omnologos‏ @omnologos 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @tbonier @jonathanweisman

        @RogerPielkeJr the media consumer's impression, however, is that predictions, like all commentary, is a case of describing not what is, but what journalists wish to see. (WL, paraphrased)

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Ryan McCullough‏ @McCullough_1980 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jonathanweisman

        You misspelled “make a point to learn the basics of statistical inference”.

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
      3. Sulid Fan Account‏ @BoobyJargon 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @McCullough_1980 @jonathanweisman

        This is the correct response!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Micah Coffee‏ @jewcoffee 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jonathanweisman

        Coin tosses and dice rolls don’t lend themselves towards narrative framing. Political journalists have problems with writing about statistics and probability.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1.  🎸 🎶 😜‏ @AndrewKrieger 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jonathanweisman @jonfavs

        Lesson 2: “both sides” are not entitled to equal amounts of positive coverage. (psst, one side can be objectively worse 🤫)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Bryan‏ @BryanNeff 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jonathanweisman @jonfavs

        Okay, but that can’t be the only lesson, please. Here’s a big lesson : like quantum physics, the very act of looking at something changes it. The reason Trump became the nominee is because a giant focusing lens was put on him because it was comical... at first. Ratings came up,

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Bryan‏ @BryanNeff 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @BryanNeff @jonathanweisman @jonfavs

        And soon what was comical and silly became more serious. It gained support. Ratings increased, so more focus was given, which drove up support. It was a loop that resulted in him getting extreme coverage. Any candidate the media gave that much coverage to w/h been the nominee.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Karl Havoc‏ @hesnoroydonk 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @jonathanweisman @jonfavs

        The lesson should have been “make sure you understand the basics of statistics before attempting to report on statistical findings.” The media’s desire to make the election as a whole a horserace is ridiculous and totally unsupported by (mountains of) data.

        3 replies 3 retweets 53 likes
      3. Aaron VanDevender 🔬‏ @APVanDevender 23 Oct 2018
        Replying to @hesnoroydonk @jonathanweisman @jonfavs

        The media's desire to make the election a horserace is totally supported by mountains of television rating data.

        1 reply 2 retweets 33 likes
      4. Show replies

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