Amen. More discussion of the factors that could impact the outcome either way and how they are changing, less attempts to synthesize all of that into a prediction (esp when the prediction is more of a bet hedging).
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@RogerPielkeJr the media consumer's impression, however, is that predictions, like all commentary, is a case of describing not what is, but what journalists wish to see. (WL, paraphrased)
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You misspelled “make a point to learn the basics of statistical inference”.
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This is the correct response!
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Coin tosses and dice rolls don’t lend themselves towards narrative framing. Political journalists have problems with writing about statistics and probability.
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Lesson 2: “both sides” are not entitled to equal amounts of positive coverage. (psst, one side can be objectively worse
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Okay, but that can’t be the only lesson, please. Here’s a big lesson : like quantum physics, the very act of looking at something changes it. The reason Trump became the nominee is because a giant focusing lens was put on him because it was comical... at first. Ratings came up,
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And soon what was comical and silly became more serious. It gained support. Ratings increased, so more focus was given, which drove up support. It was a loop that resulted in him getting extreme coverage. Any candidate the media gave that much coverage to w/h been the nominee.
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The lesson should have been “make sure you understand the basics of statistics before attempting to report on statistical findings.” The media’s desire to make the election as a whole a horserace is ridiculous and totally unsupported by (mountains of) data.
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The media's desire to make the election a horserace is totally supported by mountains of television rating data.
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