If it’s not clear how House Republicans benefit from ending the probe - and clear how it could help Democrats make the power-check argument - the big question is who benefits from the announcement. 11/
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Or more to the point, who *thinks* he benefits from it. 12/
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Nobody wants a talking point on Russia more than President Trump, who was VERY EXCITED about the House Intel announcement. 13/
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If House Republicans are putting the president’s political needs ahead of their own political needs, that’s a bad sign for the mid-terms and a compounding of the power-check conundrum 14/
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If voters agree with Rep. Tom Rooney, a committee Republican who said the probe has lost all credibility, the move to wrap it up will backfire. 15/
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It’s not just Rooney. The ODNI took issue with the committee’s findings. 16/
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What harm would have come to House Republicans by leaving the investigation open and dormant? 17/
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It’s not like Democrats in competitive districts are banging their drums about the Russia probe. They want to avoid questions that lead to their opinion on impeachment 18/
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But the controversy over the credibility of the House GOP probe and report gives Democrats in competitive districts an opening to remind voters of Trump’s Russia problem by framing it as a power-check issue. That is, two birds, one stone, no impeachment talk. 19/
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Sure, framing it that way opens the door for the impeachment question, but that’s easily deflected by saying Congress needs to be able to do oversight to find out what happened, not to judge Trump before all the facts are in. 20/
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In the interest of circularity, I come back to the original point: I don’t understand the House GOP’s strategy here. It does not seem to be one that helps them. 22/
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I’m not a political strategist, so I’d be very curious to hear arguments for why l’m wrong and this is the best strategy for the House GOP. Fire away. 23/
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