Democrats across the country this year will tell voters that they would be a more effective check on the excesses of the president than their Republican opponents. 2/
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That’s because candidates of a party left out of power in Washington almost always make the check-on-power argument 3/
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They almost always do that because it appeals to persuadable voters and their base at the same time. 4/
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The 2010 election, for example, was all about Republicans acting as a check on Obama and Pelosi (articulated in different ways, but that was essentially the argument). 5/
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By abruptly closing Russia probe - and declaring that there was no inappropriate activity - when it’s pretty clear Mueller isn’t done yet, the House Intel Committee is making it harder for GOP candidates to argue that having full control of Congress doesn’t impede oversight. 6/
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If they left the investigation open, GOP candidates could point to the probe as evidence that they are acting as a check on the president while at the same time calling it a rigorous investigation that still has found no indication of Trump-Russia collusion. 7/
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Now, when GOP candidates are asked about the probe - and they will be - they have the choice of saying it ended and Trump was exonerated, even as voters continue to receive news about the other probes that are still ongoing, OR undermining the findings of the committee 8/
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Think about this in terms of tomorrow’s special election: There are voters here who voted for Trump, will do so again and still think it’s a good idea to put a check on one-party government. That’s what happened with Obama in 2008/10/12 at the national level 9/
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Perhaps Republicans think that the Russia probe has given GOP voters pause and will contribute to apathy in the mid-terms if he’s not cleared by then. But I would bet that Russia isn’t high on the list of reasons some Republican voters aren’t enthusiastic right now. 10/
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If it’s not clear how House Republicans benefit from ending the probe - and clear how it could help Democrats make the power-check argument - the big question is who benefits from the announcement. 11/
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Or more to the point, who *thinks* he benefits from it. 12/
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Nobody wants a talking point on Russia more than President Trump, who was VERY EXCITED about the House Intel announcement. 13/
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If House Republicans are putting the president’s political needs ahead of their own political needs, that’s a bad sign for the mid-terms and a compounding of the power-check conundrum 14/
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If voters agree with Rep. Tom Rooney, a committee Republican who said the probe has lost all credibility, the move to wrap it up will backfire. 15/
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It’s not just Rooney. The ODNI took issue with the committee’s findings. 16/
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What harm would have come to House Republicans by leaving the investigation open and dormant? 17/
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It’s not like Democrats in competitive districts are banging their drums about the Russia probe. They want to avoid questions that lead to their opinion on impeachment 18/
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But the controversy over the credibility of the House GOP probe and report gives Democrats in competitive districts an opening to remind voters of Trump’s Russia problem by framing it as a power-check issue. That is, two birds, one stone, no impeachment talk. 19/
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Sure, framing it that way opens the door for the impeachment question, but that’s easily deflected by saying Congress needs to be able to do oversight to find out what happened, not to judge Trump before all the facts are in. 20/
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In the interest of circularity, I come back to the original point: I don’t understand the House GOP’s strategy here. It does not seem to be one that helps them. 22/
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I’m not a political strategist, so I’d be very curious to hear arguments for why l’m wrong and this is the best strategy for the House GOP. Fire away. 23/
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