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jonallendc's profile
Jonathan Allen
Jonathan Allen
Jonathan Allen
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@jonallendc

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Jonathan AllenVerified account

@jonallendc

political reporter, @NBCNews Digital | co-author, NYT bestsellers “Shattered” and “HRC” | Nats fan | Terp | @northwesternu teacher | jon.allen@nbcuni.com

Capitol Hill
nbcnews.com
Joined May 2009

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    Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

    I can’t understand House GOP’s strategy on closing the Russia probe. 1/

    9:43 PM - 12 Mar 2018
    • 21 Retweets
    • 49 Likes
    • Adriana Alberto Support Dems Johellion Liz Johnstone Janice McMurry Ethan Cohen N☸pro$tate$ MommaMarDee Cheryl Morgan
    9 replies 21 retweets 49 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Democrats across the country this year will tell voters that they would be a more effective check on the excesses of the president than their Republican opponents. 2/

        1 reply 10 retweets 34 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        That’s because candidates of a party left out of power in Washington almost always make the check-on-power argument 3/

        1 reply 7 retweets 19 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        They almost always do that because it appeals to persuadable voters and their base at the same time. 4/

        2 replies 4 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        The 2010 election, for example, was all about Republicans acting as a check on Obama and Pelosi (articulated in different ways, but that was essentially the argument). 5/

        2 replies 5 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        By abruptly closing Russia probe - and declaring that there was no inappropriate activity - when it’s pretty clear Mueller isn’t done yet, the House Intel Committee is making it harder for GOP candidates to argue that having full control of Congress doesn’t impede oversight. 6/

        6 replies 22 retweets 52 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        If they left the investigation open, GOP candidates could point to the probe as evidence that they are acting as a check on the president while at the same time calling it a rigorous investigation that still has found no indication of Trump-Russia collusion. 7/

        2 replies 8 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Now, when GOP candidates are asked about the probe - and they will be - they have the choice of saying it ended and Trump was exonerated, even as voters continue to receive news about the other probes that are still ongoing, OR undermining the findings of the committee 8/

        1 reply 13 retweets 23 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Think about this in terms of tomorrow’s special election: There are voters here who voted for Trump, will do so again and still think it’s a good idea to put a check on one-party government. That’s what happened with Obama in 2008/10/12 at the national level 9/

        3 replies 7 retweets 18 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Perhaps Republicans think that the Russia probe has given GOP voters pause and will contribute to apathy in the mid-terms if he’s not cleared by then. But I would bet that Russia isn’t high on the list of reasons some Republican voters aren’t enthusiastic right now. 10/

        2 replies 8 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        If it’s not clear how House Republicans benefit from ending the probe - and clear how it could help Democrats make the power-check argument - the big question is who benefits from the announcement. 11/

        1 reply 6 retweets 13 likes
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      12. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Or more to the point, who *thinks* he benefits from it. 12/

        2 replies 5 retweets 14 likes
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      13. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Nobody wants a talking point on Russia more than President Trump, who was VERY EXCITED about the House Intel announcement. 13/

        3 replies 7 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        If House Republicans are putting the president’s political needs ahead of their own political needs, that’s a bad sign for the mid-terms and a compounding of the power-check conundrum 14/

        5 replies 10 retweets 18 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        If voters agree with Rep. Tom Rooney, a committee Republican who said the probe has lost all credibility, the move to wrap it up will backfire. 15/

        2 replies 11 retweets 22 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        It’s not just Rooney. The ODNI took issue with the committee’s findings. 16/

        2 replies 5 retweets 10 likes
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      17. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        What harm would have come to House Republicans by leaving the investigation open and dormant? 17/

        3 replies 8 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      18. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        It’s not like Democrats in competitive districts are banging their drums about the Russia probe. They want to avoid questions that lead to their opinion on impeachment 18/

        1 reply 5 retweets 11 likes
        Show this thread
      19. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        But the controversy over the credibility of the House GOP probe and report gives Democrats in competitive districts an opening to remind voters of Trump’s Russia problem by framing it as a power-check issue. That is, two birds, one stone, no impeachment talk. 19/

        1 reply 12 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      20. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        Sure, framing it that way opens the door for the impeachment question, but that’s easily deflected by saying Congress needs to be able to do oversight to find out what happened, not to judge Trump before all the facts are in. 20/

        1 reply 5 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      21. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        In the interest of circularity, I come back to the original point: I don’t understand the House GOP’s strategy here. It does not seem to be one that helps them. 22/

        1 reply 8 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      22. Jonathan Allen‏Verified account @jonallendc Mar 12

        I’m not a political strategist, so I’d be very curious to hear arguments for why l’m wrong and this is the best strategy for the House GOP. Fire away. 23/

        10 replies 6 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      23. End of conversation

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