For starters, as @BudgetHawks point out, the 3 percent economic growth isn't supported by experience or most economists' projections and Congress just increased discretionary spending rather than cutting as Trump predicts. 3/x
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Beyond that, it assumes entitlement cuts in an election year - and when Congress isn't writing a budget because ... it's an election year ... which means Congress won't have the necessary tool of reconciliation to get cuts through the Senate on Republican votes. 4/
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A reasonable assumption would be that Congress will use the new budget levels for domestic and defense spending as a baseline, not a temporary boost, meaning that money will likely rise significantly in the out years. 5/
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One instructive way to look at the budget and the idea that it contains deficit reduction is to compare it to the fiscal 2018 budget, which projected deficits of $526B, $488B and $450B in '19, '20 and '21, compared to this budget which projects $984B, $987B & $916B 6/
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Maybe those projections won't double by next year like they did over the past year, but it seems likely they'll be higher than OMB projects (and, yes, OMB under all presidents predicts smaller deficits than are likely). 7/
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What we're looking at in the Trump budget - if we use more realistic assumptions about economic growth and actual policy-making - is trillion-dollar-plus deficits for many years into the future. 8/
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Now, lots of people (most Americans) aren't concerned about deficits and debt. Most politicians pay more lip service to them than actual attention. And most politicians would love to go on the trail and brag about tax cuts and spending for local priorities. 9/
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So, it's reasonable to assume that if there's any buyer's remorse about Trump's budgeting, it will come sometime down the road - perhaps after he's left office. For now, it makes sense politically. 10/
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And conservatives see the widening red gulf as a good justification for entitlement cuts, which means a smaller government footprint over time and perhaps even lower taxes. So, there's a policy argument as well as the political upside. 11/
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But Washington — as a native of the area, I say "Washington" like that with less rancor than most — could do a lot more to be honest about the cumulative effects of policy-making on the nation's fiscal picture. 12/
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That would make it easier to have a realistic debate about priorities: How much the government raises for the defense and general welfare of the nation, which priorities get funded at what levels and how much borrowing is acceptable or desirable to achieve those goals. 13/
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One thing's for certain: this budget under-estimates the deficit impact of combining $1.5 trillion in tax cuts with hundreds of billions of dollars in spending increases that will likely become baselines for more spending. 14/
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So, back to the original point: The era of trillion-dollar Trump deficits is upon us. For some, that's a good thing - or at least less important than the policies that created the deficits - and for others, it's cause for concern. But it's a thing that was worth noting. 15/15
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