A follow-up: Trump's 2016 win wasn't predicated on a "wave" of anti-immigrant sentiment. But by helping to "activate" voters' existing views on immigration, he won enough additional white voters to win the Electoral College.
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Here's what "activation" looks like: voters' preexisting views on immigration and Muslims become stronger predictors of their vote in 2016 vs. 2012. For more, see my book with Tesler and
@vavreck, Identity Crisis: https://www.amazon.com/Identity-Crisis-Presidential-Campaign-Meaning/dp/0691174199/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1529370596&sr=8-1&keywords=identity+crisis+vavreck …pic.twitter.com/cxEMYvoaLG
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So it's important to remember that in US and in Europe, there is little evidence of any "wave" of populist sentiment. But there are politicians and parties mobilizing existing sentiments in new ways.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/06/21/the-wave-of-right-wing-populist-sentiment-is-a-myth/ …
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A bit more: that there's not a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment doesn't mean that there are no relevant trends in the salience of immigration as an issue. People's beliefs about what issues are important can change readily, as in Sweden (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/09/10/why-a-far-right-party-with-white-supremacist-roots-is-on-the-rise-in-sweden/?utm_term=.f0bd6da9b8ee …).pic.twitter.com/KwmjiCFsGh
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This is another reason to distinguish (1) "people's views about Issue X" from (2) "whether they think Issue X is important" and (3) "how much their views of Issue X affect their vote." #2-3 can change even if #1 doesn't.
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What great news! Finally the diversity propaganda bombardment is having effect and we are able to irrevocably transform the most successful nations on earth into something more akin to *checks notes* Papua New Guinea and Tanzania...pic.twitter.com/WGektZYikj
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@BannoJr
@cmalcs1 Not sure if you've done immigration unit yet.Merci. Twitter en tiendra compte pour améliorer votre fil. SupprimerSupprimer
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I was looking at this question in
@electionstudies cumulative file, last night. Despite overall growing support for increasing immigration, it is a much more partisan issue today. Just collected through 2016 with ANES, but I expect the trend hasn't reversed over the last ~ 3 yrspic.twitter.com/IYj3KJW9qJ
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That's a central argument of our book too (indeed, it's the primary motivation for the title).
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Also true in much of Europe (even Italy!), despite the refugee “crisis”https://twitter.com/angelioliviero/status/1091330882974244866?s=21 …
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Le chargement semble prendre du temps.
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