John Sides

@johnmsides

Professor of political science at Vanderbilt University. Publisher of . Co-author of IDENTITY CRISIS ().

Nashville TN
Vrijeme pridruživanja: lipanj 2018.

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  1. prije 14 sati

    Distracted here in Des Moines, and totally forgot to include Boris Shor's data in my earlier tweetstorm! See here:

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  2. prije 15 sati

    Big thanks to for collecting the 2020 data () and to Vanderbilt undergrad for compiling it. /fin

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  3. prije 15 sati

    Looked at this way, Biden is not as widely supported as the clearest invisible primary winners (e.g., Clinton '16 or Gore). Lots more to discuss, clearly! But that's it for now.

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  4. prije 15 sati

    This graph shows the percent of endorsements won by each candidate that got at least some endorsements. In other words, of the endorsements that were made, which percent went to each candidate? Here, I ranked the candidates across years.

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  5. prije 15 sati

    Again, a possible comparison is 2020 vs. 2008. A similar number of candidates wins at least one endorsement, although 2020 field was obviously bigger. The top candidate (HRC, Biden) still wins only ~16% of possible endorsements from these officeholders.

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  6. prije 15 sati

    This graph has the percent of endorsements won by every Democratic presidential candidate since 1980. It's got a lot happening but it tries to visualize both the size of the field and the success of each candidate in the invisible primary.

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  7. prije 15 sati

    . had a nice comparison of the pace of endorsements in 2020 vs. the 2016 GOP primary (. Maybe an even closer analogue is the 2012 GOP primary. Both races had a presumptive favorite (Romney, Biden) who didn't fully bring leaders off the sidelines.

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  8. prije 15 sati

    This is the pace of endorsements pre-Iowa by Dem governors and members of Congress. The invisible primary developed pretty slowly, and in the end relatively few leaders endorsed (30%). 2020 ends up looking like 2008.

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  9. prije 15 sati

    On the day of the Iowa caucus, here is a graphical tweetstorm of the Democratic party's invisible primary. In short, the party didn't really decide. To the extent that it did, Biden was more or less the winner. Now, to the graphs!

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    In which we reveal that Bloomberg to date has aired nearly twice(!) as many TV ads as Donald Trump aired in the entire 2016 campaign (and other stunning comparative facts)! Cc:

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    Great being on this morning to talk about some of the Voter Study Group's latest numbers on impeachment. Let's dig in. 1/N

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij
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  13. 31. sij

    As usual, the conversation over intra-party divisions is overshadowing the larger inter-party divisions that will drive behavior in November. For more, see the analysis:

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  14. 31. sij

    And given all the ink spilled over which Democratic is more appealing to Obama-Trump voters, we can say that the current answer is...none of them.

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  15. 31. sij

    Early signs of how the party could unify: Percent of Sanders supporters who dislike Biden: 43% Percent of Sanders supporters who don't support Biden in a match-up with Trump: 14% Don't forget that about 80% of Sanders supporters voted for Clinton in 2016.

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  16. 31. sij

    What percent of 2016 Sanders supporters support him now? We found it was only 16%! More supported Warren in this survey. That's probably changed a bit given his recent surge, but it still points to the challenge of reconstituting his coalition.

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  17. 31. sij

    Most Democrats really dislike Trump (no surprise). 87% have a very unfavorable view of him. Trump's net favorables (-15) are also underwater among all Americans, and more so than many of the Democratic candidates (at least thus far).

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  18. 31. sij

    Most Democratic primary voters like most Democratic candidates. Gabbard and Bloomberg are the exceptions.

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  19. 31. sij
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  20. 31. sij

    So the lesson is clear. A political party takes a big risk just waiting for a candidate to lose. Is that the mistake that Democrats are about to make? /fin

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