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Distracted here in Des Moines, and totally forgot to include Boris Shor's data in my earlier tweetstorm! See here:https://twitter.com/bshor/status/1224366104715366401 …
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Big thanks to
@FiveThirtyEight for collecting the 2020 data (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-endorsements/democratic-primary/ …) and to Vanderbilt undergrad@AdinMcGurk for compiling it. /finPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Looked at this way, Biden is not as widely supported as the clearest invisible primary winners (e.g., Clinton '16 or Gore). Lots more to discuss, clearly! But that's it for now.
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This graph shows the percent of endorsements won by each candidate that got at least some endorsements. In other words, of the endorsements that were made, which percent went to each candidate? Here, I ranked the candidates across years.pic.twitter.com/QmyIArXx31
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Again, a possible comparison is 2020 vs. 2008. A similar number of candidates wins at least one endorsement, although 2020 field was obviously bigger. The top candidate (HRC, Biden) still wins only ~16% of possible endorsements from these officeholders.
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This graph has the percent of endorsements won by every Democratic presidential candidate since 1980. It's got a lot happening but it tries to visualize both the size of the field and the success of each candidate in the invisible primary.pic.twitter.com/JD7JaApasy
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@geoffreyvs had a nice comparison of the pace of endorsements in 2020 vs. the 2016 GOP primary (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democratic-party-leaders-are-mostly-sitting-out-the-endorsement-race-so-far/ …. Maybe an even closer analogue is the 2012 GOP primary. Both races had a presumptive favorite (Romney, Biden) who didn't fully bring leaders off the sidelines.pic.twitter.com/TXpCTewBm8
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This is the pace of endorsements pre-Iowa by Dem governors and members of Congress. The invisible primary developed pretty slowly, and in the end relatively few leaders endorsed (30%). 2020 ends up looking like 2008.pic.twitter.com/hDsNDCHOJf
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On the day of the Iowa caucus, here is a graphical tweetstorm of the Democratic party's invisible primary. In short, the party didn't really decide. To the extent that it did, Biden was more or less the winner. Now, to the graphs!
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John Sides proslijedio/la je Tweet
In which we reveal that Bloomberg to date has aired nearly twice(!) as many TV ads as Donald Trump aired in the entire 2016 campaign (and other stunning comparative facts)! Cc:
@monkeycageblog@washingtonpost@wesleyan_uhttps://twitter.com/wesmediaproject/status/1223986852404912129 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
John Sides proslijedio/la je Tweet
Great being on
@Morning_Joe this morning to talk about some of the@DemocracyFund Voter Study Group's latest numbers on impeachment. Let's dig in. 1/Nhttps://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/more-americans-now-think-trump-should-be-impeached-poll-77882949560 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
John Sides proslijedio/la je Tweet
Guess who is popular with Obama-Trump voters... Trump. New report from
@rp_griffin@johnmsides
https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/the-great-wide-open …pic.twitter.com/RkFWFWe8JC
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As usual, the conversation over intra-party divisions is overshadowing the larger inter-party divisions that will drive behavior in November. For more, see the analysis:https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/the-great-wide-open …
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And given all the ink spilled over which Democratic is more appealing to Obama-Trump voters, we can say that the current answer is...none of them.pic.twitter.com/KDiBYdYwQC
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Early signs of how the party could unify: Percent of Sanders supporters who dislike Biden: 43% Percent of Sanders supporters who don't support Biden in a match-up with Trump: 14% Don't forget that about 80% of Sanders supporters voted for Clinton in 2016.
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What percent of 2016 Sanders supporters support him now? We found it was only 16%! More supported Warren in this survey. That's probably changed a bit given his recent surge, but it still points to the challenge of reconstituting his coalition.pic.twitter.com/g3qHQraXGv
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Most Democrats really dislike Trump (no surprise). 87% have a very unfavorable view of him. Trump's net favorables (-15) are also underwater among all Americans, and more so than many of the Democratic candidates (at least thus far).
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Most Democratic primary voters like most Democratic candidates. Gabbard and Bloomberg are the exceptions.pic.twitter.com/pbVhwRkTWk
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I got tired of the "Democrats in disarray" takes and so here's an antidote, based on the newest
@democracyfund VOTER Survey and co-authored with@rp_griffin.@monkeycageblog summary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/31/are-democrats-really-disarray-dont-underestimate-their-unity/?utm_campaign=wp_monkeycage&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter … longer analysis: https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/the-great-wide-open … Here are the highlights.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
So the lesson is clear. A political party takes a big risk just waiting for a candidate to lose. Is that the mistake that Democrats are about to make? /fin
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