The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of:
"More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
@PTetlock @dgardner
Odgovor korisnicima @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky i sljedećem broju korisnika:
The probability that insurance will be unaffordable or unavailable to *someone*? To a *randomly chosen* would-be purchaser of insurance? To *everyone*? I guess the 2nd one is the most plausible interpretation.
16:09 - 20. sij 2020.
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