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In 1989, Jacques Laskar showed that the Earth's orbit is chaotic. An error as small as 15 meters in measuring the position of the Earth today would make it completely impossible to predict where the Earth would be in its orbit 100 million years from now! (7/n)
In 2008, Laskar and Gastineau simulated 2500 futures for the Solar System, changing the initial position of Mercury by about 1 meter. In 20 cases, Mercury went into a dangerous orbit! Often it collided with Venus or the Sun - but in one case it made Mars hit the Earth. (8/n)
But here's the good news: the work of Laskar and Gastineau - and also another team - shows that nothing dramatic should happen to the planets' orbits for the next billion years. So we can worry about other things. (9/n)
In the *really* long term, most of the stars in the Milky Way will be ejected. Through random encounters, individual stars will pick up enough speed to reach escape velocity. The whole Galaxy will slowly "boil away". It will dissipate in about 10^19 years. (10/n, n = 10)
Many years ago, I actually ran a multi-billion year integration of the solar system and got to see Mercury become unstable first-hand.
Cool! "Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds."
If a one meter change spells the difference between dramatically different outcomes, then what does that say about the effect of as-yet-unseen intruders, like those that passed by recently? How can any future predictions be made without taking outsiders not yet seen into account?
The sensitivity on initial conditions, and the impossibility of taking all relevant effects into account, means that all we can do is study probable scenarios... and maybe estimate their probabilities.
It would be cool to see Wenus + Sun collaboration.
Surprised to see something like a 1% probability of a collision. Planetary collisions have a remarkably small cross section. Is there an intuitive (read: short, verbal) explanation for what is going on here?
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