There will be a lot of uncertainties when using transmission model to estimate final size of epidemic, as neither disease parameters nor intervention strategies are quantitatively well described at this point.
Interestingly this overall CFR of 1.6% is identical to his estimate of CFR outside of China based on different time lag model and different data set. Coincidence?https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1236275741597339648 …
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"accounting for underreporting" changes the result significantly while not measured reliably.
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Also, this is based on only the early data: "The findings describe the situation in Hubei from 1 January to 11 February, 2020."
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@C_Althaus says, the coincidence arises from different effects. In Hubei, the estimated IFR is somewhat higher than in the rest of China (maybe 0.5% outside Hubei if apply asymptomatic proportion?). Elsewhere, the age distribution is likely skewed older, pushing CFR/IFR upDziękujemy. Twitter skorzysta z tych informacji, aby Twoja oś czasu bardziej Ci odpowiadała. CofnijCofnij
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There are way too many variables for this post. It's ignorant and ill-informed. There are so many factors people are assuming it's only old people yet two 29 year old doctors in Wuhan just died. Only time will tell but people will and are dying. Don't contribute to their deaths
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Disagree. The authors do not say that it's ONLY old people who die, but that the risk of older people dying after infection is higher than for younger persons.
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Wydaje się, że ładowanie zajmuje dużo czasu.
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