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I spent weeks researching & writing my 2020 technology predictions.
Time for some fun (thread)
1. Future of Face ID: Apple won the early days of face authentication, which they’ll aggressively expand as a replacement for email & passwords.
Google, Amazon, Facebook will...
attempt to compete by iterating on their own versions of Face ID. Facebook Connect will lose market share. As competition intensifies, we’ll see more innovation in the use of biometrics as an identifier for email/password (along with PIN, multi-factor auth, privileged access).
Meanwhile, startups like @fast will compete to own the new identity layer of the web through the use case that matters most to consumers — one click shopping!
Fast will make it simple to buy things without email & passwords.
We’ll realize how archaic passwords feel in 2020.
2. Student Debt will reach a tipping point, with students suing universities more often. Two weeks ago, University of Phoenix was ordered to pay $191M ($141M to students) for false promises of future jobs while asking students to take on debt. More students will fight back.
Speaking of student debt, we’ll see more employers offer “student debt assistance” to attract employees. About 8% of companies (incl. Aetna, Fidelity, PwC) help employees repay student loans, up from 4% three years ago. Employers can now give tax-free assistance up to $5250.
3. The “Facebook Election debate” will become a major story again, as the media finds new cases of election fraud. FB will fight this battle every 4 years until they ban political ads. FB will be hammered by regulators again & the brand will continue to deteriorate in the US.
4. Social 2.0: We reached a tipping point on the social internet where people are afraid to say what they think online because of backlash. The internet was created to be a free thinking environment & we lost that. Social 2.0 will emerge to create more honest conversations.
5. Omni-Channel Work:
The future of work is flagship offices paired w/ remote work environments.
As @wquist said:
Employers will create digital first work experiences, but with a physical footprint that has the same opex benefits for employers that it does for retailhttps://twitter.com/jmj/status/1204797083930132480 …
6. In 2019, Kanye West purchased 10,000+ acres in Cody, Wyoming where he’ll build his own wellness city. Cody will be known for meditation, Sunday services & creative work. Influencers in entertainment & tech will try building their own cities as the exodus from CA continues.
7. Deepfakes will take Identity Theft to new levels: Cyber criminals used to steal credentials & passwords. Deepfakes will let them steal your face & voice - phishing will reach new levels. Deepfakes ethics will be as a hot social topic & big new startups will fight deepfakes.
8. Investing in climate change:
Investors will overcome painful memories of failed cleantech startups.
The stakes are too high & influential voices like @fredwilson are pushing.
Investors will search for startups to fight climate change — hopefully w/ better business results.
9. Mushrooms the new CBD: Investors will explore shrooms as the “next big thing” after CBD. US will loosen their ban for veterans & depression and eventually consumers. Denver already decriminalized. 100 other cities—incl. Chicago, Portland & Santa Cruz are pushing on this.
10. College-closure crisis: “In the last 5 years, half a million students have been displaced by college closures, which together shuttered 1,200+ campuses.” That’s an average of 20 college campus shut downs a month. This story hasn’t been told yet. That’ll change in 2020.
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