Ergodicity vs econ leads to this: 1 econ systems should not be modelled as 'ensemble averages' (expected value) of static, ideal, 'parallel' samples bc - it privileges outliers - ignores individual incentives - ignores reality of cumulative (time average) individual experiences
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2 the results of economic non-ergodicity include - systematic, predictable injustice (disparity of wealth outcomes) - largely flawed prediction models - general economic waste (ironic since economics styles itself as an optimization exercise)
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3 technical implications include - treating econ as complex dynamic system, not just statistically noisy static model - reinforcing analysis with systems dynamic modelling, not just more stats - prediction primarily for refining insight not just developing crude intervention
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4 practical/social implications include - choice dynamics (how do we 'optimize' choices over time) including game theory - new insights to market stability - new policies for econ justice - downgrading of GDP as indicator (it's just an ensemble average/fantasy framing)pic.twitter.com/hFgdOiKZnU
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Seems like
@ole_b_peters is the big dog here, doing incredibly intrepid rigorous intellectual enquiry up against the mainstream of econ (not unlike@ProfSteveKeen which is how I came upon ergodecon). I wish it was hammered out more clearly, but it's fascinating to see it evolve.Prikaži ovu nit -
Read the wikipedia entry on ergodicity 9 times, the quora articles and whatever papers you can find 7 times, then give up and just watch this video (ignore all the history stuff in the middle) to progress on this:https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=f1vXAHGIpfc&feature=emb_logo …
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Great summary thread for EE. My trigger to dive in and learn about EE was that the "rational man" of economics didn't actually seem to exist in the real world, so I was quite open to an alternative explanation.
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Thanks. Desperately wish folks leading it were more full-throated about what it means. Everyone sucks up to economics which I find pitiful and dangerous. Econ doesn't know a lot of stuff & isn't the right start point for lots of reform science + policy. Time to get with that.
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