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John Pfeffer
@jlppfeffer
Entrepreneur and investor

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To anyone out there reading this who owns #GBTC shares and who hasn't already done so: follow , visit redeemGBTC.com and get involved.
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I am at a loss for words for the trust and support we’ve received. There are so many people and institutions doing their part to help us… this is truly a grassroots campaign and I am honored to be a part of it. We are on the right side of history. We will win. #freethebitcoin twitter.com/DavidFBailey/s…
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The former current tends to build relatively steadily and the latter current flips, accelerates and decelerates much faster. At some point, there will be no more speculative holders left to sell, but there’s no upper bound to safe haven buyers. You just have to be patient. 2/2
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There are two types of Bitcoin owners. Ones who use it as a safe haven and ones who see it as a speculative risk asset. The ascension of the price of Bitcoin is a function of the process of the latter selling to the former over time, so there are always two opposing currents.1/2
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#Bitcoin has to-date been an early-stage tech venture aspiring to be a risk-off monetary store of value. It has traded as a risk-on asset, but there's an accelerating non-linear transition underway as those who see it as risk-on sell it to those who see it as risk-off.
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In 2017 I wrote, "Provided a monetary store of value protocol and the network running it is technically capable of acquitting its function as a monetary store of value (as is the case of #Bitcoin ), the pace of it reaching its mature equilibrium value is as fast or slow
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Patrick, it was such a pleasure and so much fun to chat. Thank you for inviting me!
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I’ve wanted to record a conversation with @jlppfeffer since I met him years ago He’s one of the most interesting people in the investing world He’s lived, invested, and built things around the globe I do the podcast for discussions like this Enjoy! joincolossus.com/episodes/26583
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The best way to minimise both false negatives and false positives is perhaps to place the burden of proof on the new idea and require replicable, well-sourced supporting evidence while standing ready to flip your view in a heartbeat if/when that evidence is present.
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Such a good essay
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A summary. 1. Network proximity > geo proximity 2. Defi matrix → currency competition 3. Remote → market for citizens 4. Bits reshape atoms 6. Property → encryption 7. Rule of code 8. Web3 vs inequality 9. Network layers merge 10. Power decentralizes archive.md/sYwAL
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The problem with following anyone's advice in this space is that most people who take the time to produce content are trying to sell you something, maybe their content, maybe their fund, maybe their token. You have to filter according to their motivations.
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#Bitcoin is much easier. It's perfectly suited to the store of value use case, which is both valuable and lends itself to strong value capture. Its product market fit and its leadership are established, but it's still monetising, so still upside. And you may never need to sell.
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And tougher still is that the short-term lottery returns in crypto are not driven by any of those fundamentals but rather by memes, social media, narratives, ponzinomics and manipulation. I'm not the right person to help you play that game.
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The tricky part is that, just because something should have some value doesn't mean that buying it at any price is a good idea. You need to think about value creation, value capture, long-term equilibrium value, risk and discount rates, what price to buy and what price to sell.
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Tokens that represent claims on actual cash flows should have value, for example, securities tokens and certain DeFi protocols where the protocol charges fees that the protocol tokens share. Some DAO tokens may have reason to have value.
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There are so many exciting things happening in the space and a subset of them could/should have value. Some unique digital assets (NFTs) could have investment value in the same way that some unique physical assets do.
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