When we have a national popular vote for president, the winner will be determined by who got 8 billion votes in Chicago.
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NPV protects local districts from the tyranny of a state majority, as the founders intended "The district mode was mostly, if not exclusively in view when the Constitution was framed and adopted; & was exchanged for the general ticket [many years later]"https://web.archive.org/web/20170525182347/https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/99-02-02-0023 …
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It’s also worth noting that in aggregate those states will lose electoral votes after this census.
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AFAIK, the NPV has only been passed by state legislatures, never by a ballot initiative. Since people vote for their state representative for lots of reasons, it's entirely possible that the NPV passes without a majority of voters in the enacting states supporting it.
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If the supporters of the NPV were truly consistent, they'd insist on passing the NPV by ballot initiative wherever state law permitted it and reject enactment by the state legislature to ensure it was enacted by "national popular vote" as much as possible.
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This has been the compact behind many similar state votes.https://www.theblaze.com/news/national-popular-vote-colorado …
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Should this ever gain enough support... it’s going to backfire. Imagine the shocked faces the first time a Republican wins the popular vote (say narrowly)... and thus both New York and California (very blue states) have to go to the Republican.
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