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jgordonshare's profile
John Gordon MD
John Gordon MD
John Gordon MD
@jgordonshare

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John Gordon MD

@jgordonshare

Not my TrueName but a truly an MD. I know primary care, knowledge representation, special needs, and bicycles. The rest is at your risk.

MSP
kateva.org/sh
Joined September 2010

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    1. Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538 May 27

      Nate Silver Retweeted Health Nerd

      OK let's get this on record. What percentage chance would you assign to a lab leak? Because there are a lot of credible people I'm reading from and talking to that consider it reasonably likely (at least 50%).https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1397807872033976323 …

      Nate Silver added,

      Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
      This is a bizarre take. The evidence has stayed precisely the same - natural origin very likely, lab leak thus far entirely unproven and a very low chance The rest is mostly misconceptions caused by reading only sensationalist headlines https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1397160688284536842 …
      Show this thread
      1,066 replies 120 retweets 1,298 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Florian Krammer‏Verified account @florian_krammer May 27
      Replying to @NateSilver538

      Not impossible but less than 1% for a lab leak of a natural isolate. Logs below that for an engineered virus.

      127 replies 185 retweets 2,379 likes
    3. Scott Gottlieb, MD‏Verified account @ScottGottliebMD May 27
      Replying to @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

      We need to assess possibility of lab leak not in isolation, based purely on scientific likelihood, but also in context of what we know: the admittedly circumstantial facts that emerge.This is no longer a purely scientific judgement but a security assessment based on entire mosaic

      61 replies 75 retweets 722 likes
    4. Dr. Angela Rasmussen‏Verified account @angie_rasmussen May 27
      Replying to @ScottGottliebMD @florian_krammer @NateSilver538

      The problem is that no new circumstantial facts have actually emerged to support laboratory origin.

      35 replies 11 retweets 299 likes
      John Gordon MD‏ @jgordonshare May 27
      Replying to @angie_rasmussen @ScottGottliebMD and

      Bayes theorem applies. The longer we go without identifying a natural source the more probability shifts to lab.

      8:03 AM - 27 May 2021
      • 21 Likes
      • edmond dantes Cascadian 🌳 Isabell Welpe #WearAMaskSaveLives&Economy Comecloser Milos Blagojevic 2 Dogs in a Trenchcoat
      36 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
        1. Matt •Get Vaxxed ASAP• Dearringer‏ @dearringer May 27
          Replying to @jgordonshare @angie_rasmussen and

          pic.twitter.com/94vCmgDaLc

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Jason Kindrachuk, PhD‏Verified account @KindrachukJason May 27
          Replying to @jgordonshare @angie_rasmussen and

          You mean like ebolaviruses? Because we’re 45 years and counting on that one; 18 for SARS-CoV. If the belief is that we have to isolate infectious virus from a reservoir host...

          4 replies 7 retweets 104 likes
        3. Björn Meyer‏Verified account @_b_meyer May 27
          Replying to @KindrachukJason @GlobalBioD and

          What so we do about viruses that we know spilled into humans 1000s years ago? Definitely no chance to find the original reservoir. But then I think neither molecular biology nor labs were around at that time either. It's a pickle

          5 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
        4. Show replies
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        2. David Gorski, MD, PhD‏Verified account @gorskon May 27
          Replying to @jgordonshare @angie_rasmussen and

          You clearly don’t understand Bayes theorem.🙄

          1 reply 0 retweets 81 likes
        3. Show replies
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        2. Loy‏ @loybeek May 27
          Replying to @JaiKanta22 @jgordonshare and

          Maybe quite a complex education, sqrt(-1) ?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. Tin Foil Awards‏ @TinFoilAwards May 27
          Replying to @jgordonshare @angie_rasmussen and

          Yeah, that isn't what Bayes' Theorem says

          0 replies 0 retweets 33 likes
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