.@sTeamTraen @PhDefunct I take and agree w/your general critique, but I'm convinced he was gonna get caught. Too brazen not to
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Replying to @jessesingal
@jessesingal@PhDefunct Well, obviously (with hindsight caveat). But apparently his calibration of likelihood differs from yours and mine.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @sTeamTraen
@sTeamTraen@jessesingal I am really shocked that he got caught, precisely because most scientists wanted to believe the results.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @PhDefunct
@sTeamTraen@jessesingal Most cases of fraud are uncovered by skepticism, aren't they? Not by disappointment over failed repl?2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @PhDefunct
@PhDefunct@sTeamTraen Maybe, but this is a strange case to stake that claim on. There was no public skepticism from anyone - it was 1/21 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @jessesingal
@jessesingal@sTeamTraen That was my point--it seems like this is the less common way for fraud to be uncovered.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @PhDefunct
@PhDefunct@sTeamTraen Ah, okay. Yeah I think we're in agreement. Important question is why ppl weren't more skeptical here, of course5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @jessesingal
@jessesingal@sTeamTraen I think that is easy: collective confirmation bias and wishful thinking re a sociopolitical issue5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @PhDefunct
@PhDefunct@sTeamTraen Yeah. + me and many other journalists are more conditioned to look for questionable effect sizes/stat significance1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @jessesingal
@jessesingal@sTeamTraen If cases of full-on data fraud are rare (I hope?), it seems like a good strategy to look for signs like that.2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
@PhDefunct @sTeamTraen Yeah, aren't they, most likely? Shit like p-hacking a much bigger problem, relatively speaking
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