Conversation

Inflation was a valid concern before 2022, but likely manageable. Russia’s assault on Ukraine added an oil shock. The failure of “zero COVID” policies in China w/ Omicron adds more supply chain disruption. Very hard to see how it plays out, but looks bad right now. 😳
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Zero Covid won’t last in China and other oil producers will ramp up production in response. This will normalize in 6 months tops. The only major long term inflationary trend domestically is the labor shortage
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… the problem is, high inflation can only go on so long before it starts impacting inflation expectations. Once inflation expectations rise, it takes a hammer to bring them down. And we have too much debt to take the hammer…
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True - a quick hammer or just time. We won’t be increasing rates as fast as before for sure, so my guess is we will just wait for things to peter out. Could be several years for that
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We’ll see. Seeing a lot of the TikTok crowd comparing the inflation number to their annual salary adjustment, and realizing that’s part of how inflation expectations get baked in…
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