Watching the election on Desktop. Pretty strong reversal in the last hour in favor of Trump.
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I don't pretend to understand any of this, but it seems relevant if you either:
1. risk your own money in this market; or
2. base your expectation of the outcome on it
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Can we all acknowledge that the REAL winner of this election is @nntaleb’s critique of election forecasting techniques, and his proposed approach—treating elections like option contracts.
arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351
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