Conversation

I am considering investing in certain emergency-related devices and consumables. I intend to sell at a 1000%+ profit, at a future date. The profit will reflect inflation, opportunity and carrying costs. Q: should I stock these supplies or will I be barred from making a profit?

212

Sjors Provoost

@provoost

Apr 24, 2020

Assuming you build this supply in calm times: it depends. You could sell (non transferable) call options to future customers with a strike price at 10x the normal level. That seems perfectly ethical and compensates you both immediately and if a bad event happens.

Hm. great idea!

Business ethics seems to depend on symmetry of information. You don't know when a crisis is going to hit, neither does your customer. But when it does hit and you raise prices to an unpredictable level, the (perceived) asymmetry gets you lynched. medium.com/incerto/why-ea

Jesse Powell

@jespow

Replying to

@provoost

Ultimately, every trade is about information, risk, opportunity cost. Some people saw a pandemic coming and were prepared. Some have been taking losses "prepping" for an apocalypse for decades. Some build businesses around 100-year events (insurance). Perception seems irrational.

8:28 PM · Apr 24, 2020Twitter Web App

Replying to

Perhaps, or your definition of "rational" is wrong. Either way, if your goal is to avoid getting lynched, and yet make money, which seems rational, you'll have to take into account how people actually behave :-)