"How much would a generically smart liberal arts graduate know about this subject within 2 weeks of hearing it existed?" successfully predicts about 98% of articles.
(One can trivially cite the 2%, but they're not labeled "This is the one today which isn't mostly winging it.")
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It may be a good idea to assume that any topic receiving occasional mainstream coverage in a publication like NYT, etc. is at least 10x more complex than is represented.
If one wants to appear intelligent, cite the article; but to gain understanding, talk to its subjects.
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