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jeremyphoward's profile
Jeremy Howard
Jeremy Howard
Jeremy Howard
@jeremyphoward

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Jeremy Howard

@jeremyphoward

🇦🇺 Co-founder: @FastDotAI, Masks4All; Research: @CSIRO, @USFCA, @RealOzSAGE

Brisbane/Queensland, Australia
fast.ai
Joined August 2010

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    Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

    So do these non-medical masks we're all meant to be wearing actually do anything? Well yes, yes they almost certainly do. Here's a thread about the current science. Let's start by explaining this striking picture of a researcher speaking in a laser scattering chamber. 1/npic.twitter.com/pm6kA8k0cw

    10:49 AM - 19 Jun 2020
    • 11,225 Retweets
    • 17,734 Likes
    • @1drng1 rogerc248 rock your socks 🧦 Jerzy Samolej katherine💙 Karen Smith Kevin McKenna Karam Bales🐝🚫🐄 Tiffany
    208 replies 11,225 retweets 17,734 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        The picture above shows speech droplets, which are believed to be the key transmission vector for COVID-19, with vs without a paper towel face cover. As you see, nearly all droplets are blocked. Here's a video with a cloth covering, from this NEJM paper: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800 …pic.twitter.com/HGqz3U7NQU

        18 replies 747 retweets 2,067 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        The reason we look at speech is because we now know that COVID-19 results in viral shedding in the upper respiratory tract, where speech can result in droplet formation. Few asymptomatic patients show significant lower respiratory tract shedding https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x …

        8 replies 193 retweets 995 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Droplets from breathing would only be an issue if shedding was occurring in the lower respiratory tract, which seems unlikely for folks without symptoms. Even if breathing does cause infection, cloth masks may be the best at blocking breath droplets too! https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.10720 pic.twitter.com/SCtj9r9hQl

        10 replies 153 retweets 759 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        So if masks look so good on paper, do they work in practice? They sure seem to! In countries with universal mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased by just 5.4% each week compared with 48% each week in remaining countries https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v1 …pic.twitter.com/qReHvo6U57

        20 replies 852 retweets 1,757 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Another paper looked at mask mandates in the US, finding that the data "suggest as many as 230,000–450,000 COVID-19 cases possibly averted By May 22, 2020 by these mandates"https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00818 …

        4 replies 133 retweets 616 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        A paper in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine used a clever technique to analyze Google Trends, E-commerce, and case data, and also found a strong relationship between masks and COVID-19 cases https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1164/rccm.202004-1188LE …pic.twitter.com/Gzg9UvA0CR

        3 replies 125 retweets 602 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        These findings are in line with a model presented in Proceedings of the Royal Society, which found "when lock-down periods are implemented with 100% facemask use, there is vastly less disease spread, and the epidemic is brought under control" https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376 …

        4 replies 137 retweets 601 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Numerous other models have shown the same results, including both SEIR and Agent Based models developed by De Kai et al. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says …

        2 replies 174 retweets 666 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        We also see strong observational evidence, including a study that found that “face mask use by the primary case and family contacts before the primary case developed symptoms was 79% effective in reducing transmission” of COVID-19https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/5/e002794 …

        7 replies 104 retweets 489 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Masks work particularly well in conjunction with social distancing. A new "social distancing belt" device was used to show that people keep their distance better from mask wearers than from non wearers. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf …pic.twitter.com/2LacKfBAED

        8 replies 202 retweets 700 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Furthermore, masks reduce the radius of the droplet cloud, based both on the Schlieren imaging study already mentioned above, and based on these fluid dynamics simulations https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03444 pic.twitter.com/VQ19dUP93n

        2 replies 112 retweets 481 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        We covered an additional 106 references in our evidence review, "Face Masks Against COVID-19", including discussing sociological and other factors.https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v2 …

        4 replies 119 retweets 467 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        So there you have it, a taste of some of the science of mask wearing. Next time you hear someone claim "those masks don't do anything", point them over here and set them straight!

        13 replies 136 retweets 770 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        I'll post additional tweets to answer questions here. First question in the replies was: Is it enough to just avoid getting in front of people? No. Droplets hang around for 10 minutes or more, and can blow around into a cloud formation. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/22/11875 …pic.twitter.com/tZYEX5rzAg

        25 replies 163 retweets 536 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Q: My wearing a mask protects others, but does it also provide me with any meaningful protection? A: Yes, it can, depending on the material you use (try a layer of cotton and of silk), and how tight fitting it is. Here's a table of filtration amounts: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252 …pic.twitter.com/KLv213A58i

        13 replies 182 retweets 536 likes
        Show this thread
      17. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Q: I heard a doctor claim masks don't work. Shouldn't we listen to experts like him? A: For any scientific issue, there will always be folks outside the scientific consensus, like climate change and vaccines. But most top experts say: wear a mask.https://masks4all.co/letter-over-100-prominent-health-experts-call-for-cloth-mask-requirements/ …

        13 replies 95 retweets 384 likes
        Show this thread
      18. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Q: How do I improve the fit of my cloth mask? A: Use rolled aluminum foil to create a moldable nose piece, and rubber bands to create a tightener. See this video for details and a demo.https://youtu.be/4xT6zEE4y8E?t=582 …

        8 replies 118 retweets 388 likes
        Show this thread
      19. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Q: How about face shields? A: Face shields are not well studied, but are probably a useful addition. Here's my "maxed out" face covering, using paper towel, foil nose piece, rubber bands, a transparent file folder, and hair bands. Took 5 mins, required no tools, cost $0.65pic.twitter.com/bcvOF09asi

        18 replies 70 retweets 403 likes
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      20. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Credit for the rubber band tightener idea: https://www.fixthemask.com/make-it 

        4 replies 91 retweets 376 likes
        Show this thread
      21. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Q: Will masks give me CO2 poisoning? A: No.pic.twitter.com/I3jGjEM6AL

        13 replies 112 retweets 426 likes
        Show this thread
      22. Jeremy Howard‏ @jeremyphoward 19 Jun 2020

        Q: Will a mask make me look weak? A: If you look weak, it's not your mask's fault. Look deeper.pic.twitter.com/4ykyZZn2Y2

        25 replies 210 retweets 857 likes
        Show this thread
      23. End of conversation

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