Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
JeremyKonyndyk's profile
Jeremy Konyndyk
Jeremy Konyndyk
Jeremy Konyndyk
Verified account
@JeremyKonyndyk

Tweets

Jeremy KonyndykVerified account

@JeremyKonyndyk

Dad, baker, beer snob. COVID-19 @USAID. Personal account. 🏊‍♂️🚴‍♂️🏃‍♂️

Washington DC
usaid.gov
Joined October 2011

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      (2) Delayed action scenario. Measures applied at point (2), only once cases growth has accelerated, but still somewhat before hospitals are overwhelmed and mortality begins to spike. Delayed action can mitigate over-saturation of hospitals but not avert it.pic.twitter.com/x9mtuz9X7o

      3 replies 84 retweets 386 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      In this scenario, social distancing measures are triggered late, and case volumes are too high for contact tracing to meaningfully reach many/most cases. Measure to stretch ICU capacity are triggered at (2) and slowly add capacity, eventually catching up to excess cases.pic.twitter.com/KHc3G3iPZI

      5 replies 62 retweets 330 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      Even with stretching of ICU capacity, substantial volume of excess critical cases (dark red). But red stripes show volume of additional cases that could be managed if capacity is expanded. Capacity catches up to cases earlier. This is a version of China's approach.pic.twitter.com/adoLGqhTRo

      1 reply 69 retweets 325 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      Scenario (3): the doom loop. Action taken very late, once critical cases are already overwhelming hospital capacity. These circumstances can actually *degrade* ICU absorptive capacity, because facilities become overwhelmed, standards suffer, staff start getting infected.pic.twitter.com/WureO253Yl

      5 replies 123 retweets 460 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      If action isn't triggered until point (3), case volume is so extreme that public health measures are mostly out the window and social distancing measures have less impact. And hospitals are already beginning to lose staff to illness, meaning less ability to stretch ICU capacity.

      1 reply 83 retweets 417 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      This means an extremely high volume of critical cases paired with declining hospital capacity to treat them. This creates a mortality rate doom loop. Iran may be facing this sort of scenario. And getting this back on track requires the most disruptive measures of any scenario.

      4 replies 77 retweets 423 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      (NB - just realized the purple curve as drawn seems to indicate (3) has a comparable/higher volume of cases than inaction. That's just my poor artistry; total case volume in (3) would be somewhat lower but perhaps not dramatically so)

      2 replies 39 retweets 274 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      So the takeaway here: TIMING MATTERS IMMENSELY. Triggering readiness measures before they appear urgently necessary (Scen 1) can keep things under control.pic.twitter.com/OmeVsBRAT3

      10 replies 206 retweets 569 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      Triggering dramatic measures once they're obviously *going to be needed* (2) can help, but still leaves a pretty desperate phase.pic.twitter.com/sM2qDdVgtX

      3 replies 82 retweets 365 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      Waiting to trigger measures until people are being turned away from hospitals (3) is a cataclysm.pic.twitter.com/SOkGHc3lmd

      8 replies 129 retweets 465 likes
      Show this thread
      Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

      Jeremy Konyndyk Retweeted Channel 4 News

      And this is why public health folks in your twitter feed are freaking out, and why the US testing debacle is so extraordinarily damaging. We lost 6-7 weeks of potentially triggering earlier action, because lack of testing made us blind.https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1235994748005085186?s=20 …

      Jeremy Konyndyk added,

      2:38
      Channel 4 NewsVerified account @Channel4News
      "This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career." Richard Hatchett, the doctor leading efforts to find a vaccine for coronavirus, says it is much more lethal than normal flu. pic.twitter.com/1tjJ2ed0Hq
      Show this thread
      10:25 AM - 8 Mar 2020
      • 730 Retweets
      • 1,596 Likes
      • Rocklandology Minerva AGirlCriesFoul Stephanie Attwater Harvey 🐰🐦 Jay Dee Kat Connie Handscomb A. C.
      27 replies 730 retweets 1,596 likes
        1. Jeremy Konyndyk‏Verified account @JeremyKonyndyk 8 Mar 2020

          And the continuing testing gaps in the US means we still don't know which US cities could be nearing point 1, point 2, or point 3 on the curve. That's hugely important because extremity of actions must be calibrated accordingly. So we're still losing time, even today. /end

          45 replies 185 retweets 861 likes
          Show this thread
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Helen Bird‏ @BirdHelen 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk

          This administration is asleep at the wheel choosing profits over lives

          0 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
        4. Show replies
        1. Amber‏ @MommaBear115 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk

          Amber Retweeted BNO Newsroom

          This is what’s happening in Italy right now. There’s still time but it’s narrowing everyday. Anxiety = all time high 😳https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1236704475554988033?s=21 …

          Amber added,

          BNO NewsroomVerified account @BNODesk
          BREAKING: Italy reports 1,492 new cases of coronavirus and 133 new deaths, raising total to 7,375 cases and 366 dead https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ …
          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Matthew Martin‏ @hyperplanes 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk

          Lack of testing made us blind, plus we didn't do any of the fall-back stuff you do when you don't have a test developed yet

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. David Catanuto‏ @dnuto 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk

          Thank you for everything you are doing. Your tweets are some of the smartest, most thoughtfully presented writing I have read on this topic all week.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. CNF‏ @ClemondNFlinch 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk @AtticusGF

          Shocking this is the most frightening disease he’s encountered in his career considering the AIDs epidemic in the 80s-90s.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. This Tweet is unavailable.
        4. Show replies
        1. Whos Ford‏ @Jumbo_bike 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk

          Then we have to use some other measures. Like people showing up at the ER with fever. Just report them to Google. Trump can't do this. We on a local level is the only chance. Google, microsoft, Facebook. Tech can track it.

          0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. New conversation
        2. Mamaweex‏ @Mamaweex 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @JeremyKonyndyk @DFire45

          “We lost 6-7 weeks of potentially triggering earlier action, because lack of testing made us blind.” All because of someone’s ego, greed, sense of superiority? @CDCgov leadership and others w/o the balls to insist on protecting Americans. #COVID19

          1 reply 6 retweets 22 likes
        3. John Smart‏ @thesmart 8 Mar 2020
          Replying to @Mamaweex @JeremyKonyndyk and

          What are they supposed to do when the administration blocks them and releases lies?

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. Show replies

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2022 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info