Jeremy C. Young

First of all, you have to understand that Oprah is almost certainly the most charismatic person in America right now. If she ran for office, she would be the most charismatic American politician since Ronald Reagan.

Read Kathryn Lofton's book on her (Oprah: The Gospel of an Icon). As Lofton points out, it's insufficient to understand Oprah's appeal in conventional celebrity terms; she makes more sense if you think of her followers as a religious movement.

Oprah has the kind of cultural cachet usually reserved for saintly figures such as Mr. Rogers or the Pope. On top of that, she's a trained actress; people forget this, but she won an Oscar in 1986.

What this means is that Oprah, like Donald Trump, has a charisma that transcends traditional politics. For instance, there are a lot of white women who voted for Trump, who would usually never vote for a black woman, who LOVE Oprah. They'll vote for her. Her support is real.

No one should underestimate Oprah's ability to win votes, and no one should underestimate her ability to wage a competent campaign. Despite her non-political background, Oprah very much could walk into the race tomorrow and instantly be the most effective candidate.

The issue with Oprah isn't her political acumen or her experience, it's the fact that her views are pretty conventionally liberal. Trump didn't succeed just because he was a celebrity, he succeeded because voters are angry and he channeled their anger. Oprah won't do that.

Oprah 2020 is not going to be a Bernie Sanders-style populist campaign. She's going to be Hillary with fewer scandals and stratospheric communication skills. She'll give us an electrifying presentation of utterly conventional politics.

This is an odd comparison, but in some ways I think the world leader Oprah most resembles is Emmanuel Macron. Both are charismatic outsiders who electrify voters looking for a change, but then give them neoliberalism on steroids.

This is just who Oprah is. It's pointless to wish she had Bernie's politics; she wouldn't be Oprah if she did. She is a conventional liberal with the kind of unbelievable charisma that can transform an election.

So, should people on the left hope for an Oprah candidacy? Right now, I say no. If Trump were polling in the 50s or 60s, I would say sure, let's throw Oprah out there. Oprah is an ideal Hail Mary; she is very much someone who can win an election when no one else can.

But if we can beat Trump with conventional politicians -- and right now it looks like we can -- I'd prefer someone like Liz Warren or Sherrod Brown who actually wants to change things.

You don't run Oprah when Democrats are polling well. You run Oprah to change the game -- to put the presidency in play when nothing else works. Right now, that's not where we are. So I vote no on Oprah for president...for now. Let's see what happens in 2018.

(Correction: Oprah was nominated for an Oscar, but did not win. Thanks to @ProfASchroeder for the catch.)