Jeff HauserOvjeren akaunt

@jeffhauser

My personal views alone on politics & sports. Run Revolving Door Project at Biweekly newsletter:

Washington, DC
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2009.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    31. sij

    Remember how we at argued that impeachment that included *healthcare* (i.e., Trump intentionally undermining the ACA) would be stronger? Well, consider Murkowski's disparate actions on ACA repeal and Ukraine! cc:

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 3 sata

    Dem group behind Shadow distanced itself from the Iowa caucus developer. But they share office space, briefings & resources. The team is made up of former Hillary campaign staff tied to Mayor Pete and have privately expressed hostility to Bernie

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    Emerson's "weight all the MTurk data and it'll be fine" approach to polling... not so much

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    Here's the most important results you'll hear today: New data shows that January 2020 was the warmest January on record globally. That means this year now has a greater than 50/50 chance of becoming the warmest year in human history. We are in a climate emergency.

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    prije 6 sati

    Elizabeth Warren won a delegate in every single precinct in Iowa County last night. I am so proud of my volunteers.

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    Thanks for mentioning that OVER performed expectations and ALSO had a good night in Iowa. Some of these other men on seem to forget that and are just mentioning the two of the dudes. And Warren is right there with them.

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    Why are we even discussing the partial results? This is a colossal waste of time

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    Under more systematic examination, I don't see much reason to think these precincts are fundamentally unrepresentative Characteristics of uncounted v. counted prec Bernie '16: 50% uncounted v. 51.9% counted Pre-election Sanders est: 24% uncounted, v. 24.8% counted

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    62% of the way through the Super Bowl my we’re winning. Just saying.

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    With nearly half of Polk and 40% of total results still outstanding, BE CAREFUL OUT THERE

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    I know Iowa was beyond fucked up. But this is the former Vice President of the United States. He has been in public life for nearly five decades. Finishing way behind the mayor of South Bend is really bad for Biden.

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 2 sata

    Inexcusable mistake by the precinct chair here cost Warren a delegate. Infuriating to know that happened anywhere. Someone should have demanded that they call the party HQ and look up the rules.

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    prije 2 sata

    I cannot for the life of me understand why, as long as we are responsibly waiting for accurate counts, why aren't actually responsibly waiting for an accurate count.

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  15. Is there any sense of whether these results are disproprtionately... any geographic type? Are they random? This release is so irresponsible by the Iowa Democratic Party.

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    As a general proposition, the media organizations aren't usually able to project even fairly competitive races with ~62% counted. If it's extremely representative, maybe in a 4 pt race.

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    That's a big chunk coming out momentarily ... but also a lot still missing. Don't jump to conclusions based off these numbers, especially if it is close. The state party chair doesn't give a timeline for the rest, but emphasizes they have a paper trail for everything

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  20. As people who have known me for a long time.... that Democratic party consultants are the reason Democrats lose has been my take for 20+ years. Last night's debacle doesn't surprise me, and poli sci models that presume political parties do what they can to win... are wrong.

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  21. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    So — the SuperPAC supporting — just announced $900k in ad spending in New Hampshire. That's a good reason to check out our thread on the corporate execs actually *funding* . (At least, the ones we know of...)

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