Out today: two academic publications (not yet peer reviewed) that formally test whether the new B.1.1.7 variant is more transmissible. Both conclude yes, about 50% more. 
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Finally, as in the other paper, we can model the R number. If > 1 the epidemic is growing, < 1 shrinking. And consistently (a) B.1.1.7 is 50% higher than others and (b) it was often > 1 during the November lockdown in England.
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In both papers, if we look across all English regions, in the overwhelming majority B.1.1.7 expands during lockdown while other lineages contract. We almost never see the reverse. Conditions during lockdown were usually enough to suppress older variants, but not B.1.1.7.pic.twitter.com/C01jdCe4il
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When you get consistent answers from different statistical models, that's usually a good sign that the findings are robust. As B.1.1.7 is detected around the world, I hope these analyses will be useful for countries confronting this more rapidly spreading variant.
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@_JennLester_ this is all terrible news and absolutely reflects what we are seeing in the Boston area -
In Boston you’re seeing lockdowns fail as they have consistently throughout the US. It has nothing to do with this new Covid variant
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The children were at school then - it wasn’t a ‘proper’ lockdown. Is this the reason? Lots were getting tested.
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So, if I’m reading this correctly, lockdowns don’t suppress the variant? Any theories on this?
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Would be more precise to say that the current version of lockdowns aren’t sufficient to drive Rt under 1.0 Mechanism of increased transmissibility isn’t yet fully known, but one theory is that it makes children, less affected by lockdowns, more infectious than other strains
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Fair enough that this variant has spread faster, but we don't know if it's due to the virus itself or the types of people who first came down with it, do we? If it took hold amongst virus skeptics, and passed among them freely and quickly, wouldn't that alone lead to more spread?
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Did you control at all for lockdown fatigue? And the festive season?
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Okay it was “English national lockdown from November 5 to December 2 2020.” So festive temptations won’t factor into it.
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