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jbview's profile
Jonathan Bernstein
Jonathan Bernstein
Jonathan Bernstein
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@jbview

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Jonathan BernsteinVerified account

@jbview

Bloomberg Opinion. Also, I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2020. Sign up for Early Returns!

bloomberg.com/view/contribut…
Joined December 2009

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    1. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 23 Sep 2019

      Correlation between total favorable rating and horserace % in our Iowa poll? +0.76. Correlation between VERY favorable rating and horserace % in our Iowa poll? +0.90. The very favorable rating is a far more telling stat in a caucus/primary where many are liked.

      4 replies 16 retweets 99 likes
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    2. (((Harry Enten)))‏Verified account @ForecasterEnten 23 Sep 2019

      This was part of the reason why I think many underestimated Trump in 2016 GOP primary. His total favorable rating was meh. His very favorable rating was among the strongest, however.

      5 replies 7 retweets 59 likes
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      Jonathan Bernstein‏Verified account @jbview 23 Sep 2019
      Replying to @ForecasterEnten

      Trump triumphed as a factional candidate, which could be what the combination of relatively high very favorable with overall mediocre net favorable picks up on. But 1980-2012, factional candidates lost. We don't know for sure yet what to make of all that.

      12:37 PM - 23 Sep 2019
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      • Bleeding Heartland
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Jonathan Bernstein‏Verified account @jbview 23 Sep 2019
          Replying to @jbview @ForecasterEnten

          I mean, I "know" that it was a fluke for various reasons, most or none of which apply to Dem WH 2020, but others "know" differently. We'll have more evidence in a few months.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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