On that topic, what do we know about how boosters themselves are working? For that we can turn to Israel, where the data looks very promising...
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2) Vax supply (and uptake) in developing world is not straightforward. Huge part of it *is* about wealthy countries buying and donating doses to less fortunate. But it’s also a thorny logistics question, and I don’t think we spend enough time & energy addressing that.
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Addition to thread on protection vs severe disease: As Jeremy notes here, doesnt look like any of waning slopes for severe disease are steeper than slopes for infection, meaning protection against severe disease *once infected* may not be waning at all...https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1437892040877088771 …
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...it could just be that as protection against infection wanes, a constant rate of protection vs severe disease once infected shows up as a waning against severe disease too (though there are different schools of thought on how the two interact)https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1429878252470931460 …
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"I don’t think it’s helpful to think of vaccine supply as a zero-sum game" Is there enough supply/production in the world for everyone who wants a shot? No? Then it's zero sum. The only way to end that is to increase production - in this case by allowing more producers.
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But can mRNA vaccines be used en masse in Kenya? If not then it isnt a zero sum game.
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Responding to demand takes time though. In the short term, it feels like it very much is a zero-sum game, unless there's some existing production capacity that isn't being used?
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Also, creating capacity means investing in new facilities, but, with lower prices needed to serve poor countries, pharmas are reticent to make these investiments. So, for the near future, it is a zero sum game. If boosters are put on hold, actual capacity will serve the poor.
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Most rich countries in the world are throwing away doses every day and production has maxed out for a while now. So it might not strictly be a zero-sum game but there sure are zero-sum elements in it.
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Right. It’s real “eat your peas, kids are starving in Africa” vibes. Nobody is getting the shot because I abstain at CVS, and nobody is not getting it because I get the shot.
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And also forgot that it’s time sensitive, meaning the more we wait for supposed vaccine production buildup for the rest of the world the more dead bodies pile up.
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