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jburnmurdoch's profile
John Burn-Murdoch
John Burn-Murdoch
John Burn-Murdoch
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@jburnmurdoch

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John Burn-MurdochVerified account

@jburnmurdoch

Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Mainly Covid for now | Visiting senior fellow @LSEdataScience | john.burn-murdoch@ft.com | #dataviz

Doncaster  ➡️ London
ft.com/jbm
Joined June 2009

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    1. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      On that topic, what do we know about how boosters themselves are working? For that we can turn to Israel, where the data looks very promising...

      4 replies 57 retweets 371 likes
      Show this thread
    2. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      • By Jul/Aug, waning against infection meant case rates among over-60s were almost as high among double-jabbed as un-jabbed • But rates now plummeting among boosted cohort • 2-dose protection was still solid against severe outcomes, but boosters have strengthened it regardlesspic.twitter.com/oJ6WXr1cyJ

      12 replies 140 retweets 650 likes
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    3. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      Other things to note: • Israel may have had a bigger waning problem than e.g the UK because of its shorter dosing interval. PHE paper would support that theory • Similarly, short dosing interval may be a factor in how bad US’s Delta wave has been (tho low US vax rates also key)

      17 replies 160 retweets 835 likes
      Show this thread
    4. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted Andrew Lilley

      Recent data from Israel compares protection from a booster shot to a range of other scenarios including protection from infection (both along and on top of vaccine):https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1435850463237193732 …

      John Burn-Murdoch added,

      Andrew Lilley @andrewlilley_au
      Update from Israel comparing all forms of protection including new data on boosters given and breakthrough infections (natural immunity from infection after vaccination). Shows that natural immunity will almost surely be part of reaching herd immunity. pic.twitter.com/KdiiefCgf0
      Show this thread
      5 replies 57 retweets 327 likes
      Show this thread
    5. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      This is important for two reasons: • First, it shows infection-acquired immunity plays an important role in protecting a population from the virus (but no: don’t go out and try to get infected)

      16 replies 54 retweets 424 likes
      Show this thread
    6. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      • Second, it’s critical to remember that if a VE study doesn’t make sure its unvaccinated control group have all never been infected, its estimate of vaccine-induced protection will be biased downwards because of the level of protection that previously-infected people have

      8 replies 55 retweets 471 likes
      Show this thread
    7. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted Muge Cevik

      And on that note, the always-excellent @mugecevik has a fantastic diagram here demonstrating how the more time passes, the more ways there are that estimates of vaccine efficacy can be biased (in both directions), which is always worth keeping in mindhttps://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1430218388287148035 …

      John Burn-Murdoch added,

      Muge CevikVerified account @mugecevik
      All studies assessing the performance of vaccines against Delta are based on real-world data (vaccine effectiveness), which are influenced by variant transmissibility, human behaviour, and immunity status of the population, therefore they require careful interpretation. (3/n) pic.twitter.com/6eLma6OQTQ
      Show this thread
      5 replies 82 retweets 521 likes
      Show this thread
    8. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      To conclude: • Most people, especially younger adults and people in good health still have excellent protection against severe Covid, and do not urgently need boosters • Boosters could save the lives of many older and otherwise vulnerable people (and reduce hospital pressure)

      27 replies 205 retweets 873 likes
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    9. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      Here’s our story, from @clivecookson @mroliverbarnes and yours truly:https://www.ft.com/content/cf83b3a1-fe06-4c9f-999c-7500090aee7c …

      7 replies 82 retweets 424 likes
      Show this thread
    10. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted John Burn-Murdoch

      One side-note: I’ve talked a lot about how the rush for boosters in rich countries feels ethically dubious given the number of developing countries still seeing record death tolls [in their largely unvaccinated populations] https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1429878268669399044 … I still hold that view, but...

      John Burn-Murdoch added,

      John Burn-MurdochVerified account @jburnmurdoch
      Final thought for today: Understandably, talk of waning immunity means lots of chatter about boosters [in rich countries]. There are still dozens of countries with hardly any first and second doses done let alone thirds, and their epidemics are as lethal as they have ever been. pic.twitter.com/r7BAf3Q4tB
      Show this thread
      3 replies 51 retweets 332 likes
      Show this thread
      John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

      Now with two injections (sorry) of nuance: 1) I don’t think it’s helpful to think of vaccine supply as a zero-sum game. Vaccine manufacturers respond to demand, and it’s not as simple as booster doses being diverted from Africa

      4:31 AM - 15 Sep 2021
      • 53 Retweets
      • 417 Likes
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      19 replies 53 retweets 417 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

          2) Vax supply (and uptake) in developing world is not straightforward. Huge part of it *is* about wealthy countries buying and donating doses to less fortunate. But it’s also a thorny logistics question, and I don’t think we spend enough time & energy addressing that.

          25 replies 45 retweets 467 likes
          Show this thread
        3. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

          John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician)

          Addition to thread on protection vs severe disease: As Jeremy notes here, doesnt look like any of waning slopes for severe disease are steeper than slopes for infection, meaning protection against severe disease *once infected* may not be waning at all...https://twitter.com/jeremyfaust/status/1437892040877088771 …

          John Burn-Murdoch added,

          Jeremy Faust MD MS (ER physician)Verified account @jeremyfaust
          Replying to @EricTopol @FT and 3 others
          Is this among entire study cohort or just infected sub-cohort? We really have to start being clear about that. In all datasets I’ve seen the waning effect for serious illness vanishes when you are looking at signal among infected cases only. And that’s a massive point of interest
          5 replies 32 retweets 229 likes
          Show this thread
        4. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 15 Sep 2021

          John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted John Burn-Murdoch

          ...it could just be that as protection against infection wanes, a constant rate of protection vs severe disease once infected shows up as a waning against severe disease too (though there are different schools of thought on how the two interact)https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1429878252470931460 …

          John Burn-Murdoch added,

          John Burn-MurdochVerified account @jburnmurdoch
          Or is it 2): You want to prevent a flood. You have a 10 foot brick wall (antibodies), and a 30 foot concrete wall (T and B cells). Even if your 10 foot wall crumbles, a flood has no more chance of breaching your big concrete wall than it did when the brick wall was intact.
          Show this thread
          24 replies 22 retweets 212 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. John Tomlinson‏ @johntomlinson 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @jburnmurdoch

          "I don’t think it’s helpful to think of vaccine supply as a zero-sum game" Is there enough supply/production in the world for everyone who wants a shot? No? Then it's zero sum. The only way to end that is to increase production - in this case by allowing more producers.

          2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
        3. Michael‏ @MikeGal041 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @johntomlinson @jburnmurdoch

          But can mRNA vaccines be used en masse in Kenya? If not then it isnt a zero sum game.

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. fully vacillated‏ @nurple__ 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @jburnmurdoch

          Responding to demand takes time though. In the short term, it feels like it very much is a zero-sum game, unless there's some existing production capacity that isn't being used?

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. K. Langoso  🇧🇷 🔴 🐷 🇳🇬 🏡 😷‏ @klangoso 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @nurple__ @jburnmurdoch

          Also, creating capacity means investing in new facilities, but, with lower prices needed to serve poor countries, pharmas are reticent to make these investiments. So, for the near future, it is a zero sum game. If boosters are put on hold, actual capacity will serve the poor.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Kim Ahola‏ @kimthecynic 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @jburnmurdoch

          Most rich countries in the world are throwing away doses every day and production has maxed out for a while now. So it might not strictly be a zero-sum game but there sure are zero-sum elements in it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Michael Bloom‏ @bloomich 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @jburnmurdoch

          Right. It’s real “eat your peas, kids are starving in Africa” vibes. Nobody is getting the shot because I abstain at CVS, and nobody is not getting it because I get the shot.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        2. jp‏ @garugurugaru 15 Sep 2021
          Replying to @TonyBurnetti @jburnmurdoch

          And also forgot that it’s time sensitive, meaning the more we wait for supposed vaccine production buildup for the rest of the world the more dead bodies pile up.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. End of conversation

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