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All returning travellers have their tests sequenced, so we know this inflates numbers for B.1.617.2. If national trend is downward, and you have a glut of travellers returning from India, the imported cases (and their secondary cases) alone could artificially imply rapid growth.
Hopefully we keep getting breakdowns of how many were linked to returning travellers and how many were not. In the absence of that, it’s a case of wait and see. It was several weeks after this point that B.1.1.7 really took off. That may happen with B.1.617.2, or it may not.pic.twitter.com/VNOOnn2Oih
So that’s the issue with the data itself, but more important is what all of this means in the context of the vaccines. And here, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic:
First, B.1.617.2 does not have the E484Q mutation, which has been linked to immune escape.
Among its mutations is L452R, which @GuptaR_lab has found to be less immune-evasive than the mutations found in e.g the Brazilian and South African variantshttps://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1388422662595219459 …
And second, the data we do have on people being infected with B.1.617.2 after receiving the vaccine is — despite claims to the contrary — very reassuring. Even among the most vulnerable populations, infections are not turning into severe illness or deathhttps://twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1390388896433942544 …
variant) in care home in London a week after 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ- likely too soon for full effectiveness
0 deaths.
Chance of this outcome without vaccine was ~ 1 in 800
(0.12%)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high … pic.twitter.com/juJxgbob0zThis is strongly supportive of the last point about mutations & immune escape: If (and it remains an if) B.1.617.2 is found to be more transmissible than other variants, it doesn’t look like vaccines will struggle to protect infected people from getting seriously ill.
As @mugecevik told @AnnaSophieGross in our story, "Right now the most important thing is that the vaccines are working against this variant".
And it really is as simple as that until we learn more.
As I’ve been saying, keep *watching*, but don’t keep *worrying*.
Here’s our full story: https://www.ft.com/content/8e134734-c3f0-4694-9bdb-9d03e67dadec … And here’s @PHE_uk’s report today https://www.gov.uk/government/news/confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-variants-identified-in-uk …
Final comments: I’ve deliberately included the "numbers are rising!" charts alongside the caveats about why that is not necessarily reason to worry. I think it’s important to show the raw data, even if there are many reasons to take it with a pinch of salt.
I also want people to realise 2 things can both be true: numbers rising, and the situation not necessarily being scary. It’s not either or. If someone shows you a scary chart of rising numbers, ask whether it really is scary given what else we know (and hey, perhaps it will be).
I’ll continue to share as much information as I have on B.1.617.2 as the picture becomes clearer. As ever, feel free to get in touch with questions, comments etc.
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