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jburnmurdoch's profile
John Burn-Murdoch
John Burn-Murdoch
John Burn-Murdoch
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@jburnmurdoch

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John Burn-MurdochVerified account

@jburnmurdoch

Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Mainly Covid for now | Visiting senior fellow @LSEdataScience | john.burn-murdoch@ft.com | #dataviz

Doncaster  ➡️ London
ft.com/jbm
Joined June 2009

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    1. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

      Brief thread on vaccines vs variants (vaccines are winning 💉💪): [Some] people keep pointing to rising cases in places like Chile and Canada as evidence that the vaccines aren’t working. That’s completely contradicted by the data coming out of those countries

      86 replies 1,938 retweets 5,110 likes
      Show this thread
      John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

      First, an update from Chile, where cases, ICU admissions and deaths are now all falling among the elderly, who were prioritised for vaccination (while still rising or stable among younger, less-vaccinated groups).pic.twitter.com/uD9zKMQz5m

      9:26 AM - 4 May 2021
      • 121 Retweets
      • 672 Likes
      • Brezega Ebrahim Al Baqer antiimperialist Neil  H. Victor Fica Serkan Kaya 🔴🔴🔴 Norz Zron Venkat Gandhi Jai Kisan Enact #MSP Model Act
      9 replies 121 retweets 672 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Chile is one of the clearest examples worldwide: • Rates were on exactly the same path among young & old before vaccines • They then diverged, with the elderly (💉) faring better • If deaths among 70+ had stayed on the same path as the 0-59s, 1,500 more people would have diedpic.twitter.com/MU3kYVjTGM

          7 replies 127 retweets 648 likes
          Show this thread
        3. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Chile’s resurgence has been bad. It’s horrible to see so many young people in ICUs. But vaccines have already saved 1,500 lives there. That’s the equivalent to 5,000 in UK or 26,000 in US. Chile has had a bad resurgence, but vaccines have prevented it being much worse.

          9 replies 64 retweets 512 likes
          Show this thread
        4. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Some have also pointed to Canada and asked how it could be seeing surging cases, ICU admissions and deaths despite 1/3 of the population having had one or more doses. Again, you have to break things down by age:

          5 replies 38 retweets 339 likes
          Show this thread
        5. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Canada’s third wave has been much more muted among the elderly, who were prioritised for vaccination. Cases and ICU admissions rose much more slowly, and began falling earlier. Deaths have also climbed much slower among the elderly.pic.twitter.com/f5LKqrevJR

          9 replies 118 retweets 545 likes
          Show this thread
        6. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          To reiterate: do not point to a resurgence at the aggregate level and say "see, vaccines aren’t working against new variants". Dig beneath the surface, and you’ll see vaccines are winning the battle against variants, preventing things from being much worse.

          5 replies 140 retweets 780 likes
          Show this thread
        7. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          If Chile and Canada were even further along their vaccination rollouts, the recent resurgences would have been even more muted than they already are. Thousands more lives would have been saved. But the vaccines that *have* been administered are working well.

          9 replies 68 retweets 488 likes
          Show this thread
        8. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted Gupta Lab

          We also have new data from @GuptaR_lab, showing that the mutations in the Indian variant are no more able to escape antibodies than either the Brazilian or South African mutations, and we already know the vaccines are working against those twohttps://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1388422662595219459 …

          John Burn-Murdoch added,

          Gupta Lab @GuptaR_lab
          Here is the REALLY IMPORTANT part. The combination of the two mutations gives a value of 4, in other words the two mutations DO NOT confer substantial antibody evasion and we can stop using the term 'Double Mutant'.
          Show this thread
          9 replies 182 retweets 684 likes
          Show this thread
        9. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted Carl T. Bergstrom

          And in one recent case, a scare-story about immune-escape from the Indian variant turned out to be precisely the opposite: it strongly suggests the vaccines are working against this variant, toohttps://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1387941641395179524 …

          John Burn-Murdoch added,

          Carl T. BergstromVerified account @CT_Bergstrom
          Today a story has been going around about a cluster of B.1.617 cases in Israel. This is the India-associated strain. Unfortunately, this is in some places being spun as a possible example of vaccine escape. But the numbers suggest exactly the opposite! https://www.timesofisrael.com/children-from-5-schools-among-israels-41-cases-of-indian-covid-strain/ …
          Show this thread
          2 replies 77 retweets 436 likes
          Show this thread
        10. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Over recent weeks the UK has reopened substantially. Schools and shops are open, and outdoor eating and drinking have returned. Yet in my "Covid endgame" chart, that rise in mixing hasn’t pushed us back into the "outbreak growing" quadrant. Cases continue to fall.pic.twitter.com/GEueDUsslN

          13 replies 112 retweets 626 likes
          Show this thread
        11. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Of course, things can change. We only know what we know today. But there is no evidence yet that we should be overly worried about the positive, vaccine-driven trends in places like Israel and the UK being reversed.

          5 replies 38 retweets 333 likes
          Show this thread
        12. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          I understand the cautious frame of mind that says "but cases of new variants in the UK are going up, we can’t rest yet". But: • These numbers remain tiny • The "surges" in P.1 and B.1.351 failed to materialise • We have no reason to believe these variants escape the vaccines

          3 replies 59 retweets 426 likes
          Show this thread
        13. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          So my advice would be: keep *watching*, but don’t keep *worrying*. Every piece of evidence we have says the vaccines will get us out of this, and it’s just a matter of getting them to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible.

          14 replies 162 retweets 877 likes
          Show this thread
        14. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 4 May 2021

          Further reading: • The FT’s vaccine tracker (free to read) https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/ … • The situation in Canada https://www.ft.com/content/4b6f5200-0626-45f2-9808-2a8083e2cbb9 … • The vaccines are workinghttps://www.ft.com/content/d71729a3-72e8-490c-bd7e-757027f9b226 …

          17 replies 91 retweets 457 likes
          Show this thread
        15. End of conversation

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