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Most useful thread I’ve read on the dynamics of Covid transmission. By an expert, and packed full of links to evidence. Indoor spaces and or prolonged face-to-face contact account for large majority of Covid transmission. Walking past someone in street/park much lower risk.https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1257393259929915393 …
Means any resurgence in use of public transport is especially risky, which has big implications for going back to work. Similarly, return to offices, restaurants, gyms etc will require strict social distancing and still be relatively risky even then.
Also helps explain seroprevalence studies showing higher % have had Covid in urban areas than elsewhere. Much more time in crowded spaces. This is why the results showing 20% in NYC have had Covid vs national rates of 5% in Spain & France are plausiblehttps://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1257393262958182402 …
Doubt this changes day-to-day calculus for most people, since social distancing, masks etc can still help, but it shows different contexts/environments have very different risk profiles. Some parts of life can return to normal with minimal risk involved. Others very much cannot.
While I’m at it, 2 fab podcast episodes addressing Covid transmission, rich in experts & evidence:
1) @BBCMoreOrLess
on the science behind 2 metre (or is that 1 metre?) distancing guideline, and whether indoor/outdoor & duration matter more than distancehttps://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08czkk7 …
2) @ScienceVs takes a deep-dive into the science on masks, speaking to the authors of some of the most-quoted research on effectiveness of homemade cloth masks. As ever, it’s not as simple as you might think...https://gimletmedia.com/shows/science-vs/xjheev2/coronavirus-the-mask-wars …
More than 80% of people go to work without using public transport, you are too London centric
It’s right that unions are putting the safety of staff and the public before being forced back to work by the government. The government should stop playing political games and blaming unions, and sit down with them to agree a safe way forward that prevents further deaths.
Meanwhile, in Perú there a new law of congress that promotes particular cars for public transportpic.twitter.com/iDJprbRVUl
And schools?
Govt still considers 'contact' to be 2meters and 15 minutes, right? So on tube 14 minutes, get off to catch the next one. Govt won't count that as 'contact'? Until the govt sees this they'll keep threatening to withhold money.
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