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NEW: Mon 6 April update of coronavirus trajectories Daily new deaths: • US has averaged 1,000 deaths per day over the last week • Daily deaths in Italy & Spain peaked around 23-24 days after lockdown • Suggests UK could peak in 7-10 days Live charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest …pic.twitter.com/qdGPCFqx7g
But peak deaths absolutely doesn’t mean restrictions then lift. Peak deaths means restrictions are working. China passed peak deaths months ago, but the roads in Wuhan are still silent as restrictions remain in place. Follow our lockdown tracker: https://www.ft.com/content/0c13755a-6867-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 …pic.twitter.com/IdnLkuKxxs
Back to the mortality data, let’s look at cumulative deaths: • US death toll has passed Italy’s • Question is will its curve now taper off like Italy’s or keep rising? • Australia’s death toll far below other Anglophone countries All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest …pic.twitter.com/nZ0ikm4HeJ
Now daily new cases: • A chain of outbreaks in many states & cities mean US still gets more new cases every day than day before; still no nationwide lockdown • In France, Italy & Spain new cases plateau or dip ~18 days after lockdown • Suggests peak UK daily cases in 2-4 dayspic.twitter.com/ddZZ8EqA46
Cases in cumulative form: • US encroaching on another new y-axis ceiling... • Australia and Ireland = Anglophone countries on flatter curves • India’s curve still noisy = look for trends, not daily bumpspic.twitter.com/i9dHlRoSjr
Now subnational region daily deaths:
• NY recording 100s of deaths per day; more than Lombardy recorded at its peak, but in 3 fewer weeks, and still rising 
• Daily deaths in London still rising; one of the world’s urban covid epicentres
All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest …pic.twitter.com/I8Zoxc2ZgC
Subnational death tolls cumulatively: • NY on a much steeper curve than Lombardy at the same stage; almost certain to end with the world’s highest confirmed subnational death toll • Paris & London on similar curves, but Paris recorded many more deaths early onpic.twitter.com/q5V6o1FPcO
Now small multiples of daily deaths in subnational regions: • Added lines for England, Scotland & Wales (N.Ireland to come). England by far the steepest, followed by Scotland • Now showing 7 US states, more to come • We’ve added Brazilian data; Sao Paulo shownpic.twitter.com/TsuGESBhDF
Small multiples for daily new deaths in 43 countries:
• Algeria on a very steep curve 
• Sweden and Netherlands both avoiding full-scale lockdowns; both have more daily deaths than China at the same stage
• Ireland shallower curve than UK
All charts: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest …pic.twitter.com/QKTcteAhXQ
Finally, small multiples for daily cases in 63 countries: • Sweden v Norway still instructive. Norway locked down & new cases are falling, Sweden didn’t & each day brings more new infections • Japan’s outbreak continues Live versions of all charts here: http://ft.com/coronavirus-latest …pic.twitter.com/vd1gsFs9CR
Things to note: • The data is noisy & subject to all sorts of tricky caveats • e.g most countries reporting deaths in hospital. Many deaths occur in nursing homes etc; we hope to add these in future • Point being: watch for general trends. Focus on slopes, not specific numbers
Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more: https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1244519429825802240 …
And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101 …
Analysis of Chinese movie box office revenues shows that lockdowns won’t be lifted overnight, and life may take many months to return to normal. Restrictions will be released bit by bit, only to be reinstated wholly or in part as infections pick up againhttps://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246135176461254657 …
And @google data shows that people in the US are still out and about much more than their counterparts in several European countries:https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776 …
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More: https://www.ft.com/content/ba60772b-0bd3-3fdd-9b77-20dd8fcdcbef … pic.twitter.com/y7R3pURoGNPlease email coronavirus-data@ft.com with feedback, requests & subnational data. All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions and data every day. We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible. Enjoy your Monday nights on and all :-)
A confession: every once in a while we don't cook fresh food 
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Tonight we opted to support a local business, and went with the fantastic Pizza Room (Grove Road, Mile End)pic.twitter.com/7Sn5GHUeco
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