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jburnmurdoch's profile
John Burn-Murdoch
John Burn-Murdoch
John Burn-Murdoch
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@jburnmurdoch

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John Burn-MurdochVerified account

@jburnmurdoch

Stories, stats & scatterplots for @FinancialTimes | Mainly Covid for now | Visiting senior fellow @LSEdataScience | john.burn-murdoch@ft.com | #dataviz

Doncaster  ➡️ London
ft.com/jbm
Joined June 2009

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    John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020

    John Burn-Murdoch Retweeted John Burn-Murdoch

    I’m no epidemiologist, but I am a #dataviz specialist, so here are some thoughts on coronavirus and log scales: 1) In the initial outbreak phase, a virus like this spreads exponentially not arithmetically, i.e a log scale is the natural way to track the spreadhttps://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1237737352879112194 …

    John Burn-Murdoch added,

    John Burn-MurdochVerified account @jburnmurdoch
    NEW on coronavirus: many western countries may soon face Italy’s situation Case numbers since outbreaks began in several countries have tracked a ~33% daily rise. This is as true for UK, France, Germany as Italy; the latter is simply further down the path https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 … pic.twitter.com/xM6wXuMk4n
    Show this thread
    7:33 AM - 11 Mar 2020
    • 1,820 Retweets
    • 4,327 Likes
    • celineon Jacob Edenhofer Andrew Prudames Delia MacMillan Vicki Bolton Lois Marshall slana.tech Prodigius Jim Lola
    124 replies 1,820 retweets 4,327 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020

        2) If we show case numbers on a linear scale, it would look like UK, US etc have little to worry about: they’re down here and Italy is way up there! You’d also be asking readers to calculate an exponential curve in their head to see if two countries are on the same trajectory ???pic.twitter.com/t9Xosj6mNK

        10 replies 134 retweets 825 likes
        Show this thread
      3. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020

        3) Log scales handle all of this: First, vertical distance represents multiplicative difference. The space between countries with 100 and 1,000 cases is the same as that between countries with 1,000 and 10k, because it takes the same time to go between those two milestones.pic.twitter.com/XyuepoG6aa

        14 replies 240 retweets 1,158 likes
        Show this thread
      4. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020

        4) And second, readers now only have to draw a straight line in their head to see if two countries are one the same path 😀😅pic.twitter.com/dPtUsCZsev

        11 replies 149 retweets 823 likes
        Show this thread
      5. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020

        5) imo much concern over "reader don’t understand log scales" is misplaced. When a reader ponders this chart, they’re asking "are these two countries on the same course", or "how many days til country X is at Y cases", not "how many pixels represent 100 cases" etc.

        26 replies 123 retweets 1,327 likes
        Show this thread
      6. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020

        6/6 A chart should convey a message and allow people to answer useful, real-world questions about real-world phenomena [like exponential growth] The log scale version of this chart does that, where the linear scale version would be a) less useful and b) more panic-inducing Fin.

        89 replies 137 retweets 1,921 likes
        Show this thread
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Matteo Mazzon‏ @MatMaz72 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @jburnmurdoch @Gitro77

        are you sure that data are right?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Owe Jessen‏ @ojessen 12 Mar 2020
        Replying to @MatMaz72 @jburnmurdoch @Gitro77

        He pulled it fresh from the johns Hopkins database.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Vanja Zappetti‏ @VanjaZappetti 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @jburnmurdoch

        If I’m allowed, not a specialist here, just an Italian deeply into the matter: don’t trust cases, they are way uncertain, for various reasons. Better work on deaths a/o intensive care numbers. @emmevilla in Italy is doing a great job about it, try and check

        22 replies 17 retweets 409 likes
      3. John Burn-Murdoch‏Verified account @jburnmurdoch 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @VanjaZappetti @emmevilla

        Tend to agree :-)

        1 reply 0 retweets 31 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Megan Robertson‏ @MegRobertson 11 Mar 2020
        Replying to @jburnmurdoch

        Props to the #dataviz goodness, thank you!

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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