Hoping I can buy what I need before my unruly kids get me kicked out of Home Depot
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John Buhl 
@jbuhl35
Comms . Tax, econ and tech stuff. Complaints about sports. Extreme centrist. Opinions mine only.
John Buhl 🇺🇦’s Tweets
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Probably gonna see lots more of these stories. Get used to it.
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Teacher vacancies have reached a 20-year high in South Carolina, but the state's not just losing early career educators — it's losing the best. bit.ly/3Sa5UxZ
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As if enough weren’t happening this morning, Senate Dems have released their fiscal 2023 spending bills: appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/
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Economy contracts for two consecutive quarters in a row. That does not make what we are experiencing an official recession - hiring remained robust, consumers continued to spend (albeit barely) and production continued to rise. BUT, the data are still worrisome.
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Good point here from Kyle about considering the purpose of a particular tax policy. It's also why the people who view it as an anti-poverty tool and those worried about taxes and work incentives have extremely different views about full refundability.
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Listening to the AEI/Romney event, there seems to be a disagreement over the *purpose* of the CTC/family benefits in the tax code among the center right.
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Biden now scheduled to give a speech on Democrats' prescription drug prices/energy/climate/tax reconciliation package at noon
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Nice read from on what's next for clean energy efforts: mining and the locals who oppose it.
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I've written for on why the Bank of England should switch from inflation targeting to nominal GDP targeting
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Good morning! Your pre-GDP hot take, courtesy of :
The typical American is not going to feel or experience a difference between an economy that is growing 0.5%, 0% or -0.5%.
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So sounds like adding crypto to wash sale rules isn't in the package
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By the numbers
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.@SenatorMenendez says there are "issues" with Schumer and Manchin's reconciliation deal "that should be addressed, namely lifting the SALT cap.”
NJ is a state where SALT provisions are huge
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Le hot pocket
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Here’s the one page summary of the Manchin-Schumer deal. Notable inclusion of carried interest changes, which Sinema appeared to be opposed to in talks last year, and exclusion of changes to the SALT cap, which several House Dems have said they need to get to ‘yes’.
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Is a slimmed down version of Build Back Better still in play? Sen. Manchin just announced an outline of a deal with Sen. Schumer that revives notable tax changes to raise revenue for certain spending priorities. A 🧵 on what's proposed...
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a blog about nationwide reservoir water levels called Meadium
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The "media" is trying to communicate what the official process is (NBER makes the designation based on its list of indicators).
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NEW: Several media outlets including NYT, AP, CNN and Politico are quickly embracing Biden admin talking points that redefine what a recession is ahead of the release of economic data that could show two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. foxnews.com/media/biden-wh
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New from me: Democrats' tax-increase plans fell short in this Congress, and they may not get another chance to raise revenue from high-income people and corporations until the end of 2025.
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Mike Kaercher, Senior Attorney Advisor, spoke with about Sen. Toomey and Sen. Sinema’s latest crypto tax proposal for 's .
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JPMorgan economists say this morning's durable goods and trade data are leading them to upgrade their 2q GDP growth number to 1.4% from 0.7%.
Gonna be a hell of a thing if after all the two quarters of contraction/recession handwringing we get a perfectly decent number.
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Lame.
iHealth gang for life.
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Back to the Oval.
Thanks to Doc for the good care, and to all of you for your support.
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***New Research*** I have a new analysis out this morning with on pandemic population changes. Its clear now the pandemic led a large urban exodus. Newly released Census data suggests its been way bigger for families with young children eig.org/family-exodus/ <thread>
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One of the worst parts of the DC scene is people feeling like they need to pretend they think Bruce Springsteen is good.
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Klondike did the right thing
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