body { -ms-overflow-style: scrollbar; overflow-y: scroll; overscroll-behavior-y: none; } .errorContainer { background-color: #FFF; color: #0F1419; max-width: 600px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 10%; font-family: Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; } .errorButton { margin: 3em 0; } .errorButton a { background: #1DA1F2; border-radius: 2.5em; color: white; padding: 1em 2em; text-decoration: none; } .errorButton a:hover, .errorButton a:focus { background: rgb(26, 145, 218); } .errorFooter { color: #657786; font-size: 80%; line-height: 1.5; padding: 1em 0; } .errorFooter a, .errorFooter a:visited { color: #657786; text-decoration: none; padding-right: 1em; } .errorFooter a:hover, .errorFooter a:active { text-decoration: underline; } #placeholder, #react-root { display: none !important; } body { background-color: #FFF !important; }

JavaScript is not available.

We’ve detected that JavaScript is disabled in this browser. Please enable JavaScript or switch to a supported browser to continue using twitter.com. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

Terms of Service Privacy Policy Cookie Policy Imprint Ads info © 2023 Twitter, Inc.

Conversation

The news (as in new information) was core inflation in October: 3.3% annual rate. The news (as in the media) focuses on inflation total over the last 12 months (11 of which we knew already): 6.3% The truth is generally closer to the 3-month change: 5.8% annual rate.

4

54

207

Replying to

Prof. Furman, may I ask where to find the data to calculate the 3 month CPI? Thank you

1

Replying to

The best source for all economic data is fred.stlouisfed.org. You'll have to do the 3-month calculation yourself: take October divided by July and raise it to the fourth power to express it as an annual rate.

4:07 PM · Nov 10, 2022

Replying to

and

Thanks. You really are a very cool prof

Replying to

Thank you so much Prof Furman. I used SA Index level in Oct 298.062 divided by the July number of 295.271, and I got 1.00945. I raised to the power of four and I got 1.038. I couldn’t get the 5.8 percent number you mentioned. Where did i make a mistake?

1

1

Replying to

and

Will the Fed continue to raise interest rates though?