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This might be the lowest point in the 74 year history of the Council of Economic Advisers. The stakes on the epidemiological questions are so high that this utterly superficial and misleading "modeling" has no place whatsoever in any discussion of the government's response.https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA45/status/1257680258364555264 …
The "cubic fit" is based on an approach to epidemiology that has long been absent from any serious epidemiological discussions. It made terrible predictions back in March and April. The functional form was chosen to get the result they wanted.
Faux expertise is even worse than ignorance. To the degree this crowded out input from genuine experts in the conversation and confused other participants into thinking that CEA or other economists had any sort of real or valid model of the epidemic it is really & truly terrible.
I should add, I decided a few yrs ago I would not criticize CEA, so many things coming out like hackish & political reports on socialism that compared Elizabeth Warren to Stalin that it would be a depressing full-time job to weigh in. But this really matters so can't be silent.
@jasonfurman why did you recommend the senate confirm Hassett in the first place? You called him a “serious economist”. He’s clearly either a hack, and ideologue, or just not that smart
All three 
Lies, damned lies, and cubic models
You’d hope that as economists there would at least be an appreciation for how behaviors influence outcomes. But alas.
Economists only believe in one type of person: Homo Econimus - the human that only exists in economic theory and modeling.
Labelling graph "misleading" hardly captures how outrageous. All graph shows: projections modified radically yesterday now fit data. Shocking if didn't. Murray's modeling has been far off the mark. On 5/3, still predicting 72k by 8/4 -- a level likely to be reached 5/6.
Look at the difference between the IHME projection for Oklahoma on 5/3 and 5/4. Suddenly everything is rosy.pic.twitter.com/CsHlu6atzB
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