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The United States has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. Italy has 3.2 beds per 1,000. We are moving rapidly towards a massive shortage: expanding hospitals, getting more beds, and figuring out how to make some mobile to handle local outbreaks is critical.pic.twitter.com/iVV8aZ0XmA
Let me now do some national arithmetic--stressing that there are large local variations so the reality is MUCH worse than even these numbers portray. At any given time 68% of beds are occupied. This means that we have about 300,000 beds for new cases. How long will they last?
In China the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is around 15%, in Northern Italy it is higher, the AMA evidently projects 5% for the United States. Let's use 10% as our baseline (perhaps optimistic). That means at 3 million COVID-19 cases our beds will be full nationally.
Assuming we have 6,000 cases now (including undiagnosed ones) and they grow at 20% a day (slower than the current rate), we'll hit 3 million cases in one month. And then we will have net no hospital beds in the entire country.
A lot of assumptions in the above but they are all swamped by this being a national analysis. Many local areas likely will hit capacity on beds much sooner. And then we will start reading horrific triage stories like the Italian ones here in our own country.
I am no expert in what exactly needs to be done here, but I've paid enough attention in the last two weeks (and not nearly enough before that, mea culpa) to know that I would take whatever any expert says should be done and then try to do at least three times as much of it.
I guess we now know why China had to build hospitals in 10 days
we have by far the most ICU beds per capita though.pic.twitter.com/ljQWEymu5t
Germany is not included in the statistics. It has 33.8 beds per 100 000 inhabitants.
My family left europe for this shit. I wish they stayed
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