We are getting unusually different readings of the economy right now. Over the last four quarters GDP grew by a strong 3.2%. But another measure of the same concept, GDI, was a tepid 1.8%.
We have rarely seen gaps this large. The last time we did was in the Great Recession.
Conversation
Remember, these are all very rough numbers that will get revised substantially over time.
In May 2008 BEA announced GDP had grown 2.5% over the previous four quarters (buried in the release it had 1.0% for GDI). Their latest data shows GDP growth was only 1.1% over that period.
2
22
103
In early 2008 you would have been better served ignoring the rosy GDP numbers and just looking at GDI. In general the best predictor of revised GDP is the average of the 2, sometimes called GDO. This is up 2.5% this past year but only 1.8% (annual rate) in the last two quarters.
2
26
100
The recent strong jobs numbers are probably more accurate (although they will also get revised). So if GDP does eventually get revised down, this would suggest that the glimmer of a productivity revival we have seen in the last year may actually have been a mirage.
8
31
144
It has been shown that early estimates of GDI captured the downturn in the 2007-09 recession better than GDP, which could have given policymakers advance notice.
1
6
In the same vein, remember that GDO (average of #GDP and GDI) is a good leading indicator of GDP
> GDO grew 2.2% q/q saar
> GDO grew 2.5% y/y
2
3
17
Not much has been happening in this cycle in terms of rate of growth acceleration. That answer can't be accepted by some because the narrative would change politically and ideologically
1
2
Please tell the truth about GDP of 3. EVERY one of them came from disaster relief, nor growth, Stop it. 2+ qtrs on hurricane/wildfire rebuilds and 2 qtrs of trade war stocking/related. Outside of that where was the growth? Please, end it already on a strong economy on GDP crap
1
1
18
Two things—1. Trump used to say the stats were rigged under Obama 2. Whatever Trump accuses somebody of is what he did, is doing, or will do in the future.
3
4
54