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If you think the Industrial Revolution was highly contingent on, say, some quirk of geography, like the nature of British coal reserves… Suppose that this factor had been different. Would we still be living in a pre-industrial world, 300 years later? (What about in 1000 years?)
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If there is an intelligent alien civilization that has been around for much longer than humans, would you expect that they have definitely industrialized in some form? Or would it depend on the particular geology of their planet?
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There may be *tendencies* to productive development in human history, but whether tendencies are realised as trends depends upon material circumstances. If the Holocene interglacial had not occurred, would farming have developed and spread, or would we still be foragers?
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thinks we would have fallen into a malthusian trap. Any surplus would have been consumed instead of invested in the long-term.
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I think even without coal or oil, we would have eventually figured out electricity and electric motors. They might start with relatively crude hydro-dams and solar-thermal generators, but go from there. Electrical Revolution instead of Industrial Revolution.
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