Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
jasoncrawford's profile
Jason Crawford
Jason Crawford
Jason Crawford
@jasoncrawford

Tweets

Jason Crawford

@jasoncrawford

Founder, @rootsofprogress. I write about the history of technology and the philosophy of progress. Part-time consultant to @OurWorldInData. Former tech founder

San Francisco, CA
jasoncrawford.org
Joined April 2007

Tweets

  • © 2022 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

    It’s almost impossible to predict the future. But it’s also unnecessary, because *most people are living in the past*. All you have to do is see the present before everyone else does.

    3:14 PM - 13 Jun 2021
    • 842 Retweets
    • 4,269 Likes
    • RookswrNFT ▲龍▽ justins.eth einsdreizwei the3rdPedal Riley Sara Filipcic Pavel ElaTy tetsuo
    55 replies 842 retweets 4,269 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        Less pithy, but more clear: Most people are slow to notice and accept change. If you can just be faster than most people at seeing what’s going on, updating your model of the world, and reacting accordingly, it's almost as good as seeing the future.

        4 replies 99 retweets 779 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        We see this in the US with covid. The same people who didn’t realize that we all should be wearing masks, when they were life-saving, are now slow to realize/admit that we can stop wearing them.

        10 replies 16 retweets 232 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        For a dramatic historical example (from *The Making of the Atomic Bomb*), take Leo Szilard’s observations of 1930s Germany: “you just have to be one day earlier”pic.twitter.com/eqDhUV1ajl

        1 reply 35 retweets 376 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        How to be earlier? 1. Independent thinking. If you only believe things that are accepted by the majority of people, then by definition you’ll always be behind the curve in a changing world.

        1 reply 21 retweets 315 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        2. Listen to other independent thinkers. You can’t pay attention to everything at once or evaluate every area. You can only be the *first* to realize something in a narrow domain in which you are an expert.…

        1 reply 8 retweets 232 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        But if you tune your intellectual radar to other independent thinkers, you can be in the first ~1% of people to realize a new fact. Seek them out, find them, and follow them.

        1 reply 7 retweets 213 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        I was taking covid precautions in late February 2020, about three weeks ahead of official “lockdown” measures—but only because I was tuned in to the people who were *six* weeks ahead.

        6 replies 5 retweets 186 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        But: 3. Distinguish independent thinkers from crackpots. Both are “contrarian”; only one is right. This is an art, honed over decades. Pay attention to both the source's evidence and their logic. Credentials are relevant, but they are neither necessary nor sufficient.

        3 replies 21 retweets 337 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        4. Read broadly; seek out and adopt concepts and frameworks that help you understand the world (e.g.: exponential growth, network effects, efficient frontiers).

        1 reply 10 retweets 178 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        Finally: 5. Learn how to make decisions in the face of uncertainty. Even when you see the present earlier, you won’t see it with full clarity, nor will you be able to predict the future. You’ll just have a set of probabilities that are closer to reality than most people’s.

        1 reply 10 retweets 185 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        To return to the covid example: in January/February 2020, even the people farthest ahead of the curve weren’t certain whether there would be a pandemic or how bad it would be. They just knew that the chances were double-digit percent, before it was even on most people’s radar.

        4 replies 2 retweets 100 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        Find low-cost ways to avoid extreme downside, and low-investment opportunities for extreme upside. For example, when a pandemic *might* be starting, it makes sense to stock up on supplies, move meetings to phone calls, etc.—these are cheap insurance.

        1 reply 8 retweets 131 likes
        Show this thread
      14. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        In some fantasy worlds, there are superheroes with “pre-cognition”, able to see the immediate future. They’re always one step ahead. But since most people are a few steps *behind* reality, you don’t need pre-cognition—just independent thinking.

        1 reply 9 retweets 160 likes
        Show this thread
      15. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 13 Jun 2021

        This thread as a blog post:https://jasoncrawford.org/precognition 

        2 replies 9 retweets 133 likes
        Show this thread
      16. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford 31 Dec 2021

        Jason Crawford Retweeted Jason Crawford

        Addendum:https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1477054395246280704 …

        Jason Crawford added,

        Jason Crawford @jasoncrawford
        So, uh, this comment of mine looks very wrong in hindsight. Just wanted to put it out there for accountability. I don't get everything right https://twitter.com/lukasneville/status/1476997871199158274 …
        0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      17. End of conversation

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2022 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info