Conversation

The improvement in care in the aggregate data appears to have stopped. Looking at the ratio of national deaths to hospitalizations we can clearly see the improvement up until the summer. However, since then the ratio has stayed relatively steady around 2-3%.

Quote Tweet

The Atlantic

@TheAtlantic

Nov 19, 2020

Many Americans are under the impression that no matter how high cases surge in the coming weeks, deaths will not reach the heights of the spring. The truth is more grim, write @alexismadrigal and @whet. on.theatln.tc/WEYG9Zf

Jason Smith

@infotranecon

Nov 19, 2020

If we use this to estimate deaths based on hospitalizations forecast, we are looking at anywhere between 2000 and 6000 deaths per day in January.

Replying to

and

What method are you using to extrapolate the data into the future?

Replying to

and

It's based on a model, but effectively it's transforming the data so as to remove the recovery and estimating the resulting series of logistic step functions (the surges). This is what US case data looks like when you do that transformation. More here: rmationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2020/07/dynami

Replying to

and

Thank you! That's very informative.

10:46 PM · Nov 19, 2020Twitter Web App

Likes