So how do our statistical seismologists create an aftershock forecast? Well, I work with the team to develop these forecasts. Here is how they do it. Get comfy, this will take some 'splainin.
It's #storytime!
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You might think (like I once did) that our team just puts on wizard hats and throws magical numbers into a cauldron that then spew out special numbers. But no! There is actually a whole field of study on how to determine what the probabilities are for earthquakes.
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Scientists been observing aftershock sequence for over a century now. Of course, not my colleagues, but some really pioneering but definitely dead scientists did #Omori. By doing this, we've learned larger earthquakes create more aftershocks, how aftershocks decay with time...
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and the mixture of large and small aftershocks. By throwing all those lessons into their statistical cauldrons, we wind up with a numerical model that uses past experience, and observations of the current earthquake sequence.
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So, it's history, statistics, and current observations. So, the more time goes on with an aftershock sequence, the better our forecast becomes. To learn more about the science (not magic) of aftershock forecasting go here: earthquake.usgs.gov/data/oaf/
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You can also check out the latest forecast for the Searles Valley aftershock sequence here: earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ev
#RidgecrestEarthquake #EarthquakeLA #earthquakecalifornia
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