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Philippe Papin
@pppapin
Concerning short term trends with #Dorian tonight. The storm for the last 4 recon fixes has been consistently moving south of due west. This was suggested as a possible solution by a few members in the ECMWF ensemble guidance the last few days & it is verifying.
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Philippe Papin
@pppapin
Right now, the position is right in the center of the ECMWF EPS guidance envelope. However, it is reaching a bifurcation point where spread in the ensemble increases. A slightly S of due W track for the next 12h may put #Dorian closer to the Florida than currently forecasted.
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