Jason Murphy

@jasemurphy

Journalist and economist. Author of the book Incentivology, out in 2019.

Melbourne
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2009.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    26. lip 2018.

    A very exciting thing happened. gave me a book deal! Out in 2019.

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  2. prije 5 sati

    Dived into on SBS on Demand in the last week and want to recommend two films because they were both fun, surprising and well-made: 1. A Date for Mad Mary, which is a dark Irish comedy. 2. Love and Peace, a weird Japanese musical/comedy. (PS. How good is !)

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  3. prije 9 sati

    This Reuters graphic is sufficiently frightening, imo.

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  4. prije 11 sati
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  5. prije 17 sati

    This, from a 2017 Rolling Stone feature, really got to me: he obviously talks to his kids a lot about the stock price and what affects it. It's icky.

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  6. prije 17 sati

    It'd be so much easier to love this guy - and believe his protestations about the purity of his motives - if he wasn't OBSESSED with his own stock price.

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  7. prije 17 sati
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  8. prije 18 sati

    I'm not 100% certain. CPI and November retail were both moderately good results. But I'm more confident in a cut than is the market (suggests ~25% chance of cut).

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  9. prije 18 sati

    Prediction: RBA rate cut this afternoon. (60% confident). Reasoning: They have a declared easing bias, and a laundry list of new risks to worry about.

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  10. prije 19 sati

    What's possible is after *we* stop worrying about Coronavirus it will continue to have its biggest impact in the world's poorest places. Not unlike AIDS. :(

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  11. prije 19 sati

    Here's the latest data: Confirmed cases in China grew by 19% in a day (on track to double in ~4 days.) Cases outside China grew by only 5% (fast but not quite as terrifying as my extrapolation).

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    Ordered dinner in between live reports about ’s fight against the on . Meal now comes with temperature checks for the chef, the person who packed my food, and the courier.

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  13. 3. velj

    Exponential growth is not an intuitive thing. But has already grown bigger than SARS did in eight months. Worth taking seriously.

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  14. 3. velj

    This episode should be shown round the world. POWERFUL TV.

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  15. 3. velj

    Amazing tv by tonight. Great images, great interviews.

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  16. 3. velj

    Maybe this panic is unnecessary. There's also a chance we're *under*-estimating the . Here's some good reporting from the suggesting cases and deaths are being missed:

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  17. 3. velj

    The thing about this since-deleted tweet: Kansas City is not in Kansas.

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  18. 3. velj

    Each new day's data on confirmed cases is important because it helps affirm or (hopefully) reject the validity of this kind of extrapolation!! (So far the extrapolation looks moderately valid...)

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  19. 3. velj

    But *if* this came true I'd forecast a growing level of panic by the end of Feb. Millions of cases worldwide ("100 times worse than SARS") and thousands in Australia. The actual risk in Australia would actually still be low at that point. 2000 sick people is not *that* many.

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  20. 3. velj

    Using WHO data I'm seeing confirmed cases double every 3-4 days. I've assumed every 4 days in my simple model. Australia has 0.1% of global cases, I'm assuming that stays steady. (Obviously these assumptions are wild guesses, and my "model" is just a few cells in a .xls.)

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  21. 3. velj

    I feel dirty whenever I extrapolate an exponential, because the error bars also grow exponentially larger. Still, here's my envelope maths on the .

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