There is a good study forthcoming in Demography I believe that compared Italy & South Korea in terms of the age structure of the population. Worth looking. Those researchers may have insight. I tweeted it the other day. Will look.
Only 16 Germans have died of coronavirus, out of 6400 who have tested positive. The US mortality rate so far is 8 times higher, the Italian rate almost 30 times higher. I get why Italy's mortality rate is so high - older population, smoking is common. But why is Germany's so low?
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There are so many variables at play. Japan and Italy and #1 and #2 for oldest population. But Japan doesn’t have nearly as many deaths as Italy, and it’s not because they’ve been testing at South Korean levels (from what I recall of the data).
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Denominator is lower. US infection rate is probably around 25 — 30K
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Possibly bc Germany is testing more broadly and picking up closer to the universe of cases, their typical case is quite younghttps://twitter.com/economistified/status/1239571254325248002?s=20 …
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"Experts said Monday that rapid testing as the outbreak unfolded meant Germany has probably diagnosed a much larger proportion of those who have been infected, including younger patients who are less likely to develop serious complications."https://apnews.com/ad9a6af47c3b55fd83080c9168afaaf4 …
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Surely death rates in each population have to at least be compared to the average age of the positive test cases, no? For starters. We don't have to assume that Italy's higher rate is due to an older population. We can look at the average age of those testing positive.
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Good question. Smoking rate is higher in Germany than Italy https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/ … And deaths in Italy are mostly in the North, with climate and economy more similar to Germany than to Southern Italy. Age? Health care infrastructure?
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The disease takes 3-6 weeks to kill patients, so in the early days, when you don't have a lot of resolved cases, mortality can be all over the place depending on the demographics of the first people infected.
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No light beer.
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Ours is going to blow up. Instead of people dying in hospital beds they’re going to die in their houses because they can’t afford treatment. 10s of millions of people will be losing their health insurance soon.
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