Just re-re-re-reading @PTetlock and @dgardner "Superforecasting". Such a good book - and full of subtleties. Recommended. https://amzn.to/2GquLtq
I listened to it on audiobook last year and liked it a lot. The only thing that has aged badly is the use of Michael Flynn as a case study!
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Why? At the time, he had a stellar reputation and we criticized his analysis as poorly informed and extreme. I would have thought that looks rather good in hindsight...
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Hmm. I’ll have to listen back but I don’t remember that. I’ll take your word for it though. (One problem with audiobooks is that it’s hard to find passages you half remember from books you listened to a while ago.)
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