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Jacob Stokes
@jacobstokes
Senior Fellow . China, East Asian security, US foreign policy. Former national security staff, US-China Commission, . Views strictly mine.
Non-Governmental & Nonprofit Organization Washington, D.C.linkedin.com/in/jacobstokes/Joined June 2009

Jacob Stokes’s Tweets

Promises to be interesting. 👇
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2. @SFRCdems intends to hold a hearing titled "Evaluating U.S-#China Policy in the Era of Strategic Competition" with Dep SecState Wendy Sherman on Thursday, Feb 9, at 10:30 am. foreign.senate.gov/hearings/evalu
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“It suggests that there’s at least a lack of coordination somewhere in the [Chinese] government,” said Jacob Stokes, a senior fellow in the Indo-Pacific security program at the Center for a New American Security Glad to talk w/ in
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Stokes: "At the same time, US officials have said they do not think the balloon was able to gather information that couldn’t be acquired in other ways, namely by spy satellites. So while the means might be novel ... the fact of Chinese spying are mundane.”
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Sec Blinken says that China’s “decision to take this action” - re the Chinese spy balloon over the US - is “detrimental.” He says US will continue to act in way that reflects their global responsibility of US-Chins relationship to manage their relationship.
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Even in Montana, I doubt there's a 400 square mile patch with nobody there.
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US defense official said the military had estimated shooting down of the Chinese balloon would create a debris field 20 miles by 20 miles. “Last thing we wanted was for something the size of a school bus to go through the roof of a preschool.” politico.com/news/2023/02/0
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And the cross-LAC incursion at Chumar when Xi was visiting Delhi in 2014.
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The timing of the balloon incident reminds of me when the PLA conducted test flights of the J-20 fighter jet during SecDef Robert Gates's January 2011 visit to Beijing. nytimes.com/2011/01/12/wor
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Use of "regrets" in this statement is notable. Beijing clearly wants the Blinken visit to go forward.
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China "regrets" that one of its civilian airships entered U.S. airspace, Chinese MoFA says in a readout.
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That incident raised questions about civ-mil relations in China. "when Mr. Gates asked Mr. Hu to discuss the test it was evident to the Americans that the Chinese leader and his top civilian advisers were startled by the query and were unprepared to answer him."
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And here are the Democrats: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member Rep. Kathy Castor Rep. André Carson Rep. Seth Moulton Rep. Ro Khanna Rep. Andy Kim Rep. Mikie Sherrill Rep. Haley Stevens Rep. Jake Auchincloss Rep. Ritchie Torres Rep. Shontel Brown democraticleader.house.gov/media/press-re
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GOP members named to China Select Committee: Chairman Mike Gallagher and then Reps: Jim Banks Rob Wittman Blaine Luetkemeyer Andy Barr Dan Newhouse John Moolenaar Darin LaHood Neal Dunn Dusty Johnson Michelle Steel Ashley Hinson Carlos Gimenez
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“Apparent violations by Chinese companies raise the question of whether China is intentionally trying to test the limits of America’s policy, or whether Beijing simply lacks the capacity to police Chinese firms...” - tells me
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The US unveiled new sanctions aimed at blunting Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine -- > @iainmarlow & @DanielPFlatley for @business bloomberg.com/news/articles/ via @bpolitics
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GOP members named to China Select Committee: Chairman Mike Gallagher and then Reps: Jim Banks Rob Wittman Blaine Luetkemeyer Andy Barr Dan Newhouse John Moolenaar Darin LaHood Neal Dunn Dusty Johnson Michelle Steel Ashley Hinson Carlos Gimenez
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"The Ministers concurred that China's foreign policy seeks to reshape the international order to its benefit and to employ China's growing political, economic, military, and technological power to that end." Important statement from US-Japan 2+2:
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Genuinely concerning. The U.S. intel community needs to up its game.
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The OSINT gap! "China puts a premium on OSINT and has an estimated 100,000 analysts tasked with scouring scientific and technical developments globally, mostly in the U.S" wsj.com/articles/rise-
New White House statement on the protests in China: “We’ve long said everyone has the right to peacefully protest, here in the United States and around the world. This includes in the PRC,” a National Security Council spokesperson says. Full statement:
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"Mr. Xi had spent hours before the meeting reviewing talking points on Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter. He also made changes to the talking points, to better reflect his thoughts on the issue"
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"The president’s team, including White House Asia adviser Kurt Campbell, were able to keep an open line with Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the U.S., and back-channels with lower-level officials in Beijing, officials said."
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Interesting, but Western leaders should be cautious about projecting too much of the narrative they want to hear on to China and Xi.
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President Xi Jinping and I call for respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The consequences of this conflict stretch beyond Europe’s frontiers, and it is through close coordination between France and China that they will be overcome.
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In contrast to the U.S. readout, Xi made no mention of rejecting the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the Chinese version. Instead, he urged "earnest reflection" over the crisis and said that "war had no winners" and that "major power conflict must be avoided."
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"In essence, Biden argued that North Korea's provocations come at China's expense, and therefore Beijing should exercise some of the leverage it has over Pyongyang to restrain them," said Jacob Stokes, an Indo-Pacific expert at .
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Per White House pool: as reporters ushered out, one asked Biden if he would raise human rights. "Instantly a man from the Chinese side ... yanked the producer backwards by the backpack. She lost balance without falling and was pushed toward the door."
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"No shouting, no raising questions," a Chinese official could be heard on a live feed telling media waiting for Biden and Xi ahead of their meeting.
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