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Not really tbh. A prof who was always bragging about his DC hookups taught me a solid lesson by offering a bet in the thousand dollar range that there'd be no war with Iran, about ten years ago when Bibi was in on the action with his goofy bomb chart at the UN. https://twitter.com/bog_beef/status/1356440969609170946 …
Two years before that it was that weird astroturf revolution they had, before that PNAC was ready to pivot from its resounding geostrategic and political success in Iraq any day. Same pattern with VZ: lot of smoke, no fire. China, for its part, makes our guns now.
I don't know the niceties of small arms but the point was more broadly industrial capacity, I really doubt US supply chains would hold in a conventional war against China
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