JF on Twitter: "Do we have confidence as to the seroprevalence surveys now? I remember a few out the gate seemed to underestimate IFR/overestimate asymptomatic cases.… https://t.co/mfBVE3J918"

Country	Code	For customers of
United States	40404	(any)
Canada	21212	(any)
United Kingdom	86444	Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
Brazil	40404	Nextel, TIM
Haiti	40404	Digicel, Voila
Ireland	51210	Vodafone, O2
India	53000	Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
Indonesia	89887	AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
Italy	4880804	Wind
3424486444	Vodafone
» See SMS short codes for other countries

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

Trevor Bedford Retweeted The COVID Tracking Project

The US reported over 3000 deaths from #COVID19 today and the 7-day average of deaths has hit a record with today's average of 2276. Here, I dig into these grim mortality numbers and look at deaths across ages and across weeks in the epidemic. 1/14https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1336837356343607297 …

Trevor Bedford added,

4 bar charts showing key COVID-19 metrics for the US over time. Today, states reported 1.8M tests, 210k cases, 106,668 currently hospitalized (record), and 3,054 deaths (record).

The COVID Tracking ProjectVerified account @COVID19Tracking

Our daily update is published. States reported 1.8 million tests, 210k cases, and a record 106,688 COVID-19 patients in US hospitals. There were 3,054 reported deaths today -- the highest single-day total to date. pic.twitter.com/LcgzPJZdO6

Show this thread

19 replies 209 retweets 483 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

I'm using data from @CDCgov (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/ …) that records weekly deaths involving COVID-19 as well as deaths from all causes. These data use actual date of death but there is a reporting lag. 2/14

2 replies 5 retweets 67 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

CDC reports 261k deaths involving COVID-19 in this dataset. Over half of these deaths are in individuals 75 or older and over three quarters are in individuals 65 or older. 3/14pic.twitter.com/fvVsykkgXF

1 reply 23 retweets 94 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

If we look over time we see the following where COVID-19 associated deaths are shown as colored interval on top of the background of all cause mortality in gray. This is not a stacked plot and so the notable bump in all cause mortality in April is attributable to COVID-19. 4/14pic.twitter.com/RpFWfjdJ8A

1 reply 15 retweets 80 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

You can see from this that COVID-19 associated deaths are a decent fraction of all cause mortality for individuals over ~35 years. It's also quite obvious that deaths in the past 4 weeks are not fully reported (hence the gray intervals that dive towards zero at the present). 5/14

1 reply 8 retweets 74 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

Still, the increased rate of deaths from the 3rd wave is visible as rising COVID-19 deaths in mid-November. With continued high levels of circulation I fully expect this bump to continual to climb. 6/14

1 reply 7 retweets 54 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

If we look from March to today, we see that COVID-19 associated deaths are ~3.5% of all cause mortality in 25-34 year olds and 9 to 11% of all cause mortality in individuals over 45. 7/14pic.twitter.com/GoeCz5NZOy

3 replies 40 retweets 104 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

There hasn't been a marked shift in age distribution of deaths since May. 8/14pic.twitter.com/5oiXF9lTUB

3 replies 10 retweets 71 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

By using age-specific mortality alongside estimates of total infections across age groups from seroprevalence, researchers have estimated the age-specific infection fatality ratio (IFR). 9/14

3 replies 7 retweets 56 likes

Show this thread

Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020

@nfbrazeau, @lucy_okell and colleagues estimate age-specific IFR ranging from 0.02% in 15-24 year olds to 16% in individuals over 90. Remarkably, IFR against age appears linear on a log scale suggesting risk of death grows exponentially with age. http://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-ifr/ … 10/14pic.twitter.com/vT3jXnBJv9

5 replies 63 retweets 200 likes

Show this thread

JF‏ @jackfruitstaken 9 Dec 2020

Replying to @trvrb @NFBrazeau @lucy_okell

Do we have confidence as to the seroprevalence surveys now? I remember a few out the gate seemed to underestimate IFR/overestimate asymptomatic cases.

5:26 PM - 9 Dec 2020

1 Like

1 reply 0 retweets 1 like

1. Trevor Bedford‏Verified account @trvrb 9 Dec 2020
  Replying to @jackfruitstaken @NFBrazeau @lucy_okell
  
  A couple thoughts: 1. These sorts of meta-analyses seem to useful in averaging out error from individual sero studies. 2. Very early sero studies were back when only a small fraction of the population had been infected. Continued studies have had higher prevalence to work from.
  
  2 likes
  Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
  
  Undo

Loading seems to be taking a while.

Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

Tweets

JF

@jackfruitstaken

Tweets

Loading seems to be taking a while.

false

Saved searches

Tweets

JF

@jackfruitstaken

Tweets

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

Promote this Tweet

Block

Tweet with a location

Your lists

Create a new list

Copy link to Tweet

Embed this Tweet

Embed this Video

Preview

Why you're seeing this ad

Log in to Twitter

Sign up for Twitter

Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

Confirmation

Welcome home!

Tweets not working for you?

Say a lot with a little

Spread the word

Join the conversation

Learn the latest

Get more of what you love

Find what's happening

Never miss a Moment

Loading seems to be taking a while.

Promoted Tweet

false